NBA Power Rankings: Bucks #1 in Champ Percentage, Clippers #1 Based on Odds, Lakers #1 if 100 Percent Healthy

1MILWAUKEE BUCKS 16.1% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 63% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 53 Wins

They are a good bet to win the championship (16.1 percent chance). Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Bucks are averaging 53.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 58 wins. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East. Their 60-22 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 56.8-25.2.

2LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 16% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 66% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 53 Wins

With their massive move to get Kawhi and PG the Clippers are now #1 in the West with nearly 53 wins per simulation. This assumes Kawhi sits around 15 games as part of load management. If not for load management the Clippers would be a 57+ win team. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 16% chance is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 7/2, 22.2%. The Clippers are averaging 52.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West. They went 48-34 last season. They were very good against the spread going 44-36-2 for (+440 profit).

3LOS ANGELES LAKERS 13.4% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 66% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 51 Wins

Oddsmakers give them the 2nd best chance of winning the championship despite being 5th in the West in projected regular season wins. If they are fully healthy they are our Computer Model's #1 team. But with likely load management and injuries for LeBron and Anthony Davis we do not project them to have home court advantage in the West Finals or NBA Finals which hurts their chances of winning it all. Their 13.4% chance is #3 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 4/1, 20%. The Lakers are averaging 50.6 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 50 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West. They went 37-45 last season. They were not good against the spread going 35-46-1 (-1560 loss).

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4PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 10.2% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 62% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 52 Wins

Philadelphia was projected to be a 55 win team if they were able to bring back their roster from last season. Without Redick and Jimmy Butler they slip to a 50 win team. By getting Al Horford they move back up to a 53 win team. Their simulation based win percentage (10.2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. The 76ers are averaging 51.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 55 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East. They went 51-31 last season. They were not good against the spread going 38-44 (-1040 loss).

5GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 7.3% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 63% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 50 Wins

The Warriors are only projected to win 50 games with the injury to Klay Thompson, the losses of key veterans and the addition of new pieces like D'Angelo Russell. But come March 2020 they should be back on solid footing. Their simulation based win percentage (7.3%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Warriors are averaging 50.1 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 49 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West. They went 57-25 last season. They were not good against the spread going 35-46-1 (-1560 loss).

6INDIANA PACERS 7% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 58% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 51 Wins

It looked like Ricky Rubio was going to go to Indiana immediately after Darren Collison retired. Our projection for the Pacers dropped from 50 to 48 wins because Rubio cannot shoot. By getting Brogden (and Jeremy Lamb) instead they improved to 51 wins despite losing Thaddeus Young and not retaining Bogdanovic. They are a great long-shot value to win the Championship. They win the championship in 7% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Pacers are averaging 51 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 47.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East. Their 48-34 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 55%.

7HOUSTON ROCKETS 6.1% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 61% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 50 Wins

The Rockets would have been wise to get over their chemistry issues from last season and just try to win in '19-20 with the same core. But clearly the Harden-Paul relationship was broken. The Rockets had the best record when Paul was healthy for the past 2 seasons. To think that Russell Westbrook would be a better POINT GUARD is crazy. They went from 50 wins to 48 wins after the trade and a lower chance of winning the West. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 6.1% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. The Rockets are averaging 50.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West. They were expected to win 64% of their games last season so their 53-29 met expectations.

8BOSTON CELTICS 5.8% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 58% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 49 Wins

Without Kyrie Irving and Al Horford their projected win total dropped significantly from 51 down to 44. With Kemba Walker, Enes Kanter and improved chemistry they are back up to a 48 win projection. They win the championship in 5.8% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 49.5 games. The Celtics are averaging 48.8 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the East. They went 49-33 last season. They were not good against the spread going 38-42-2 (-820 loss).

9DENVER NUGGETS 5.3% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 60% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 50 Wins

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Nuggets would be a good betting value. Their 5.3% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Nuggets are averaging 49.7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 52.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West. They went 54-28 last season. They went 42-40 against the spread (-200 loss).

10UTAH JAZZ 4.7% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 60% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 49 Wins

The Jazz jumped from a projected 7th best conference record to the best after upgrading to Mike Conley. However, with the Clippers, Lakers and other major moves out West the Jazz fell all the way to 6th…but they are a win away from being in the Top 4. Mike Conley's ability to stay healthy will be the determining factor. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 4.7% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. The Jazz are averaging 48.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West. They went 50-32 last season. They were very good against the spread going 44-37-1 for (+330 profit).

11TORONTO RAPTORS 2.6% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 56% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 47 Wins

Without Kawhi Leonard the Raptors dropped to under 48 wins per simulation and the 4th spot in the East. Their chance of repeating were right around 14 percent with Kawhi Leonard. That dropped by nearly 11 percentage points after Kawhi left. They are a good bet to win the championship (2.6 percent chance). Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 46.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the East. They went 58-24 last season. They were not good against the spread going 37-44-1 (-1140 loss).

12SAN ANTONIO SPURS 1.6% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 57% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 47 Wins

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.6% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Spurs are averaging 46.8 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 46.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West. Their 48-34 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 45.5-36.5.

13PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 1.5% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 56% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 45 Wins

Portland has dropped from a projected 4 Seed immediately at the end of the last season to a 7 seed as the Clippers, Lakers, Jazz have leap frogged them. Their 1.5% chance is #13 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 46.5 games. The Trail Blazers are averaging 45.3 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the West. They went 53-29 last season. They were very good against the spread going 45-36-1 for (+540 profit).

14MIAMI HEAT 0.9% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 52% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 44 Wins

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Heat would be a good betting value. Their 0.9% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Heat are averaging 43.6 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 43.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East. They were expected to win 49% of their games last season so their 39-43 met expectations.

15BROOKLYN NETS 0.9% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 51% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 44 Wins

They were projected to regress next year with D'Angelo Russell and win 38 games. With Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Jordan they are looking at 44+ wins and when Kevin Durant comes back next season they are at 50+ wins and an elite team in the East. Their 0.9% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Nets are averaging 44.2 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 43.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the East. They went 42-40 last season. They were very good against the spread going 45-37 for (+430 profit).

16ORLANDO MAGIC 0.2% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 49% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 40 Wins

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Magic are averaging 39.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 42 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East. They went 42-40 last season. They were very good against the spread going 44-36-2 for (+440 profit).

17DETROIT PISTONS 0.2% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 48% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 40 Wins

They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.2% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. The Pistons are averaging 39.7 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 37.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the East. They were expected to win 50% of their games last season so their 41-41 met expectations.

18NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 0.1% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 50% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 40 Wins

Adding Zion Williamson had a massive impact on their projected win total. Before the draft they were projected for just 25 wins. But even a 9 win improvement only improved them from 14th best in the conference to 13th. By adding one of the best pure shooters in the league in JJ Redick they jumped 4 more wins. It comes down to Zion Williamson. If he is a 18 pt, 9 reb "very good" rookie they win 38. But if he is an instant 23 pt, 10 reb, all defense player as a rookie they could definitely be in the playoffs. They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Pelicans are averaging 39.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 39 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the West. Oddsmakers expected them to win 37.4 based on their money line game odds. Their 33-49 record last season failed to meet expectations.

19SACRAMENTO KINGS
Win 45% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 35 Wins

If Harrison Barnes was able to make wide open shots in clutch situations the Warriors would have never lost to the Cavaliers and probably would not have signed KD and who knows how the world would look today. The Kings were projected to win more game without Barnes. They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Kings are averaging 34.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 38 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the West. They went 39-43 last season. They were very good against the spread going 45-35-2 for (+650 profit).

20DALLAS MAVERICKS
Win 48% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 38 Wins

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Mavericks are averaging 38.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 41 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the West. They went 33-49 last season. They were very good against the spread going 45-35-2 for (+650 profit).

21ATLANTA HAWKS
Win 41% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 33 Wins

De'Andre Hunter is a perfect fit for the Hawks and they are projected to make a significant +5 to 7 win improvement from last season. While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. The Hawks are averaging 33.2 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 33.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the East. They went 29-53 last season. They went 42-40 against the spread (-200 loss).

22OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Win 45% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 35 Wins

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the championship is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Thunder are averaging 34.8 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 31.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the West. They were expected to win 62% of their games last season so their 49-33 met expectations.

23WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Win 39% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 32 Wins

They do not win the championship in any simulations. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Wizards are averaging 32 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 27.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the East. They went 32-50 last season. They were not good against the spread going 38-44 (-1040 loss).

24PHOENIX SUNS
Win 34% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 26 Wins

Ricky Rubio is a fine defender and a great passer but not a person thought Utah's great defense or inconsistent offense would be any worse when it was clear they were moving on from Ricky Rubio. It is one thing to shoot 31% from three point range. That is bad, but when it comes on wide open looks that average guards would make 42% of the time it's even worse. The Suns did improve after dumping Josh Jackson. They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Suns are averaging 25.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 29.5 wins. In simulations they finish last in the West based on projected wins. They went 19-63 last season. They were not good against the spread going 36-46 (-1460 loss).

25NEW YORK KNICKS
Win 33% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 26 Wins

RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Bobby Portis are all individually talented forwards and who wouldn't want to be rich, young and in New York City? They also added Taj Gibson and at the end of the day the Knicks improved a ton (from 18 to 26 wins) but are still an afterthought. They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Knicks are averaging 26 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 28 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the East. They went 17-65 last season. They were not good against the spread going 32-47-3 (-1970 loss).

26MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Win 37% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 27 Wins

If Andrew Wiggins was not anointed as the "next LeBron" in high school would he even be in the league given his lack of shooting and meager stats outside of points per game. If he is your second best player you are not a playoff team. They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Timberwolves are averaging 27.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 35.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the West. They went 36-46 last season. They were not good against the spread going 40-42 (-620 loss).

27MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Win 44% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 33 Wins

They do not win the championship in any simulations. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Grizzlies are averaging 32.8 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 27 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the West. They went 33-49 last season. They were not good against the spread going 39-42-1 (-720 loss).

28CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Win 32% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 24 Wins

While not a playoff contender their projected win total did improve by nearly 3 wins from before and after the draft. In a shooters' league they drafted quality shooting. They do not win the championship in any simulations. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 24.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the East. They went 19-63 last season. They were not good against the spread going 38-43-1 (-930 loss).

29CHICAGO BULLS
Win 32% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 24 Wins

While still projected to be one of the worst teams in the league they did improve their projected win total with Satoransky and Thaddeus Young. But other bottom ranked teams, namely the Knicks, improved enough to keep the Bulls at #15 in the East. They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Bulls are averaging 24.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 33 wins. In simulations they finish last in the East based on projected wins. Their 22-60 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 25-57.

30CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Win 34% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 27 Wins

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Hornets are averaging 27 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 23 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the East. They went 39-43 last season. They were not good against the spread going 39-41-2 (-610 loss).