New York Knicks Projected to Improve on Their 10-34 Record with 26 Wins Next Season but Still Not in the East Playoff Picture

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 10-34 Knicks 'should have' 12 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 8 good wins vs 6 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 4-14 home record is -15% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 24.8% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight. In simulations where the Knicks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 35.6% of the time (#25 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 12/30.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 52.8% (#30 in League). They average 107.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.1. On the road they average 106.2 (105.8 expected), and at home 108.4 ppg (108.9 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.5 true FG% (#26 in League). They allow 115.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 114.2. They are allowing 116.3 (115.1 expected) on the road, and at home 114.1 ppg (112.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.3 per game (#25 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.3 per game (#10 in league).

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 6 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 11.5%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.5%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Hawks by 4 games. They have a +0.31 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Bulls by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Bulls. There is only a -0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Knicks are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Knicks are playing 7 games, traveling 1078 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
46% OKC
--
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
54% HOU
--
JAN 25
LIKELY LOSS
28% @BKN
5 miles
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
47% MIA
--
JAN 28**
CLOSE GAME
38% @CHA
534 miles
JAN 30
CLOSE GAME
54% DAL
--
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
42% BOS
--
FEB 3
CLOSE GAME
57% MEM
--
FEB 5
CLOSE GAME
51% DET
--
FEB 8
LIKELY LOSS
28% @DET
1630 miles

The New York Knicks' next game is on January 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Knicks were projected to win 32.6 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 11/5 their projected win total was up to 39.2 before dropping to 21.5 on 1/3. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 26.4 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #4 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 56% #1 Toughest

Knicks' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%East ChampNBA Champ
Jan 1826.40%0%0%
Jan 321.50%0%0%
Difference+4.9------

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Enes Kanter2397% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #17)
Luke Kornet14.923% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #31)
Tim Hardaway24.297% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #28)
Kevin Knox20.480% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #47)
Mitchell Robinson10.520% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #35)
Emmanuel Mudiay21.581% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #48)