Rockets' Next 5 Game Prediction: 2-3, With a 1% Chance at 5-0

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Rockets next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 9.2%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.1%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the Trail Blazers by one game. With a -0.45 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Spurs in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Spurs. There is only a -0.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rockets are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rockets are playing 7 games, traveling 6403 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 19
CLOSE GAME
43% LAL
--
JAN 21
LIKELY LOSS
21% @PHI
1340 miles
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
46% @NY
1421 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
43% TOR
--
JAN 27
LIKELY WIN
63% ORL
--
JAN 29
LIKELY LOSS
38% NO
--
FEB 1
LIKELY LOSS
25% @DEN
881 miles
FEB 2**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @UTA
371 miles
FEB 4
CLOSE GAME
58% @PHO
1016 miles
FEB 6
CLOSE GAME
42% @SAC
1611 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 25-19 Rockets 'should have' 27 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 9-12 road record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 57% win percentage. The Rockets are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.8% (#4 in League). The team has improved to 60.5% in their last 7 games. They average 112 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110.9. On the road they average 107.4 (110.1 expected), and at home 116.2 ppg (111.7 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.9 true FG% (#25 in League). They allow 110 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.3. They are allowing 108.5 (108 expected) on the road, and at home 111.3 ppg (106.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.6 per game (#23 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.3 per game (#10 in league).

The Houston Rockets' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Rockets are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 9.6% chance of winning it all. On 11/2 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 20.9% on 11/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.1%. They have a 43.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 81% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (32%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 45% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 20.7%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the West (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 4.9% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #9 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Rockets' Championship Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Jan 1845.281.2%4.9%2.1%
Nov 215499.8%33.4%20.9%
Difference-8.8-18.6%-28.5%-18.8%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
James Harden47.4100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Clint N`Dumba-Capela27.799% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #14)
Chris Paul31.899% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #25)
Nene10.54% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #49)
Eric Gordon2177% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #53)
P.J. Tucker16.233% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #75)