Spend $4.5K on DraftKings for Sexton? Is Forbes $4.4K a Better Option?


Projected for 23.9 DraftKings pts Sexton is the #18 ranked point guard. He is the #25 highest priced point guard ($4500). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $5K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Dwyane Wade (20.2 FP), D.J. Augustin (19.6 FP), and Alec Burks (22 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 21.4 FPs, a value reached in 24 of 45 games (53%). The combined 'cover percentage' for point guards priced at $4.0K and above is 48%.

  • 1/18 MATCHUP: CLE @ UTA, CLE Vegas Line Expectation 99.8 Points (#13 most points for the day)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 23.9 Fantasy Points (#18), 14.3 pts (#13), 3.4 reb (#15), 3 ast (#18), 0.6 stl (#29), 0.1 blk (#30), 0.8 3pt (#29), 2.1 turnovers (#10 most)

FANDUEL VALUE: There are 2 other options at $4800 (Tyus Jones, Raul Neto) and Sexton is the best option of these 3. Based on salary, he is expected to have 19.7 FPs, a value reached in 25 of 45 games (56%). The combined 'cover percentage' for point guards priced at $4.0K and above is 48%.

Sexton is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.


If you are in a league that allows for substitutions during the week Collin Sexton is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #49 while his projection rank (rest of week 14) is #17. instead of Sexton consider these better options at lower start percentages: Eric Gordon (89.2 FP), Ricky Rubio (87.1 FP), Wesley Matthews (85.1 FP), Tim Hardaway (99.3 FP), and Emmanuel Mudiay (88 FP). J.J. Redick (72.5 FP), Nicolas Batum (42.7 FP), Reggie Jackson (70.5 FP), Klay Thompson (76.4 FP), and Kemba Walker (67.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Sexton but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 45% of leagues he is expected to produce 74.5 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #43 guard of week 15. He is projected to be better than that (the #37 guard). Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing 4 games.

Lower Start%C. Sexton WK 15Higher Start%
E. Gordon (89 FP)85 FPJ. Redick (72 FP)
R. Rubio (87 FP)#43 GuardN. Batum (43 FP)
W. Matthews (85 FP) 
R. Jackson (70 FP)
T. Hardaway (99 FP) 
K. Thompson (76 FP)
E. Mudiay (88 FP) 
K. Walker (67 FP)

He is projected for 85 fantasy points in week 15 (#37 G) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
85 (#37) 
Points55 (#22) 
11.7 (#38) 
12.1 (#39) 
2.2 (#74)
0.4 (#96)
3PT Made 
3.1 (#84)
Turnovers8.3 (#21) 

  • Based on 1/18 start percentages, Collin Sexton is valued behind Lamb and above Collison but the projections rank Collison over Collin Sexton in week 15.
  • Jan 21Jan 23Jan 25Jan 27
    22.1 FP vs CHI20.8 FP @BOS19.5 FP vs MIA22.4 FP @CHI

    Collin Sexton last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    1/16 @POR13 FP, 12 FD, 13 DK30 Min, 11 Pts, 1 Reb, 1 Ast, 46.3 TS%, 19% USG
    1/13 @LAL26 FP, 26 FD, 27 DK33 Min, 17 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 53.9 TS%, 22% USG
    1/11 @HOU26 FP, 28 FD, 28 DK28 Min, 14 Pts, 3 Reb, 5 Ast, 57.4 TS%, 23% USG
    1/9 @NO22 FP, 20 FD, 22 DK25 Min, 13 Pts, 3 Reb, 4 Ast, 41.9 TS%, 29% USG
    1/8 vs IND19 FP, 17 FD, 20 DK30 Min, 14 Pts, 1 Reb, 4 Ast, 75.1 TS%, 21% USG

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    The latest projections virtually match what is expected of Collin Sexton, at least in terms of position ranking. Ranking by ownership percentage (80%), Collin Sexton is expected to be the #49 guard for the rest of the season. Projections rank him #48. He is projected for 799 fantasy points in 37 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market ranks Collin Sexton behind Mudiay and above Batum but the projections rank Batum over Collin Sexton. Out of 7 major fantasy categories he ranks significantly lower in 4 categories than his overall fantasy point ranking and these are relative weaknesses. His strength is scoring, and if he could improve from 3pt range his value would increase. But sharing the ball and accumulating defensive stats need improvement.

    Lower Own%C. Sexton ROSHigher Own%
    N. Batum (852 FP)800 FPD. Schroder (771 FP)
    D. Collison (890 FP)#49 GuardS. Dinwiddie (793 FP)
    B. Bogdanovic (788 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    799 (#48) 
    Points526 (#33) 
    109 (#55) 
    109.4 (#52) 
    19 (#94)
    4 (#98)
    3PT Made 
    30 (#91)
    Turnovers76 (#30)