LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Timberwolves are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 10/27 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 2.2% on 12/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.8%. They have a 10% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 73.5% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. They have a shot (27%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 38% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 17% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 5.3% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #1 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #13 Toughest
Timberwolves' Championship Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||West Champ||NBA Champ|
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 13-13 the Timberwolves are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 12.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 11-4 home record is +17% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Timberwolves are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 10/27 they won just 44.5%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #10 winning 57.1%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.6% (#20 in League). They average 109.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.4. On the road they average 107 (111.8 expected), and at home 111.9 ppg (112.8 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.4 true FG% (#13 in League). They allow 109.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.5. They are allowing 114.2 (114.8 expected) on the road, and at home 106.3 ppg (110.9 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.5 per game (#22 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 3.3.
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2 per game (#7 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.3%. At #11 in the conference, they are fighting with the Jazz for positioning. Their projected wins (2.91) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Pelicans by half a game. With a +0.74 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Timberwolves are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 10076 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)DEC 10LIKELY LOSS24% @GS1573 milesDEC 12CLOSE GAME62% @SAC1512 milesDEC 15LIKELY WIN71% @PHO1280 milesDEC 17LIKELY WIN68% SAC--DEC 19LIKELY WIN66% DET--DEC 21CLOSE GAME48% @SA1112 milesDEC 23CLOSE GAME40% @OKC695 milesDEC 26LIKELY WIN75% @CHI354 milesDEC 28LIKELY WIN77% ATL--DEC 30CLOSE GAME50% @MIA1515 miles
The Minnesota Timberwolves' next game is on December 10. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Karl-Anthony Towns||37.9||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #4)|
|Derrick Rose||27.1||95% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #32)|
|Jeff Teague||26||97% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #30)|
|Andrew Wiggins||23.5||98% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #26)|
|Robert Covington||22.2||97% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #32)|
|Taj Gibson||19.3||58% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #59)|