Timberwolves Have a 2% Chance of Winning It All... And Are Trending Up

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Timberwolves are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 10/27 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 2.2% on 12/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.8%. They have a 10% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 73.5% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. They have a shot (27%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 38% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 17% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 5.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #1 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #13 Toughest

Timberwolves' Championship Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Dec 945.773.5%5.3%1.8%
Dec 74675.5%5.7%2.2%
Difference-0.3-2%-0.4%-0.4%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 13-13 the Timberwolves are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 12.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 11-4 home record is +17% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Timberwolves are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 10/27 they won just 44.5%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #10 winning 57.1%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.6% (#20 in League). They average 109.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.4. On the road they average 107 (111.8 expected), and at home 111.9 ppg (112.8 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.4 true FG% (#13 in League). They allow 109.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.5. They are allowing 114.2 (114.8 expected) on the road, and at home 106.3 ppg (110.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.5 per game (#22 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 3.3.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2 per game (#7 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.3%. At #11 in the conference, they are fighting with the Jazz for positioning. Their projected wins (2.91) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Pelicans by half a game. With a +0.74 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Timberwolves are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 10076 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

DEC 10
LIKELY LOSS
24% @GS
1573 miles
DEC 12
CLOSE GAME
62% @SAC
1512 miles
DEC 15
LIKELY WIN
71% @PHO
1280 miles
DEC 17
LIKELY WIN
68% SAC
--
DEC 19
LIKELY WIN
66% DET
--
DEC 21
CLOSE GAME
48% @SA
1112 miles
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
40% @OKC
695 miles
DEC 26
LIKELY WIN
75% @CHI
354 miles
DEC 28
LIKELY WIN
77% ATL
--
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
50% @MIA
1515 miles

The Minnesota Timberwolves' next game is on December 10. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Karl-Anthony Towns37.9100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #4)
Derrick Rose27.195% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #32)
Jeff Teague2697% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #30)
Andrew Wiggins23.598% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #26)
Robert Covington22.297% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #32)
Taj Gibson19.358% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #59)