Trail Blazers' Next 5 Game Prediction: 2-3, With a 1% Chance at 5-0

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Trail Blazers next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 11.9%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.4%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Grizzlies by half a game. With a -0.28 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Mavericks by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mavericks. There is only a -0.19 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Trail Blazers are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 7 games, traveling 7188 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

DEC 11
LIKELY LOSS
28% @HOU
1836 miles
DEC 12**
LIKELY LOSS
32% @MEM
485 miles
DEC 14
CLOSE GAME
53% TOR
--
DEC 17
LIKELY LOSS
34% @LAC
828 miles
DEC 19
LIKELY WIN
74% MEM
--
DEC 21
CLOSE GAME
62% UTA
--
DEC 23
LIKELY WIN
79% DAL
--
DEC 25
LIKELY LOSS
34% @UTA
635 miles
DEC 27
LIKELY LOSS
18% @GS
539 miles
DEC 29
CLOSE GAME
45% GS
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 15-11 the Trail Blazers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 14.6 wins. They have 7 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 71% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 64%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 5-6, 45%. The Trail Blazers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 8/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.2% (#11 in League). They average 112.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.7. On the road they average 109.4 (109.6 expected), and at home 114.9 ppg (113.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.6 true FG% (#12 in League). They allow 110.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.6. They are allowing 115.2 (110.4 expected) on the road, and at home 106.3 ppg (109 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +5.5 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.7 per game (#29 in league).

The Portland Trail Blazers' next game is on December 11. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Trail Blazers are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 89.4% chance of making the playoffs. On 8/28 they had a 26.1% chance before increasing to 99.2% on 11/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 61.8%. They have a 5.4% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (16%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 22% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 6.5% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #1 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #12 Easiest

Trail Blazers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Dec 944.661.8%1.1%0.3%
Nov 1352.499.2%10.4%4.8%
Difference-7.8-37.4%-9.3%-4.5%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Damian Lillard42.6100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Jusuf Nurkic2899% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #13)
C.J. McCollum29.199% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #25)
Zach Collins14.423% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #35)
Al-Farouq Aminu19.861% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #56)
Evan Turner1420% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #82)