Warriors Have a 77% Chance of Winning It All... Off Their Peak

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Warriors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 52.1% chance of winning it all. On 7/1 they had a 28.8% chance before increasing to 81.5% on 1/31. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 76.9%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 99% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 93%. Based on the odds, they have a 79% chance of winning the West (4/15) and a 71.4% chance of winning it all (2/5). In simulations they make the Finals 88.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #11 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #12 Easiest

Warriors' Championship Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Feb 1660.6100%88.3%76.9%
Jan 3161.2100%87.1%81.5%
Difference-0.6--+1.2%-4.6%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 41-16 the Warriors are behind their money line projected win total of 41.9 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 68% of their road games and were expected to win 67%. At home they have a 76% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 80%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-2, 80%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Warriors perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 83.3% of the time (#1 in the league). Their peak sim% was 85.8% back on 2/8.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.7% (#1 in League). They average 118.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 118. On the road they average 118.6 (116.7 expected), and at home 119 ppg (119.2 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.9 true FG% (#8 in League). They allow 111.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.3. They are allowing 111.5 (111.3 expected) on the road, and at home 111.9 ppg (109.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.8 per game (#6 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 2.4.

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.5 per game (#18 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 2.7.

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Warriors next 3 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 2-1 (45% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 37.7%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Nuggets by 2 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Nuggets. There is only a 0.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Warriors are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Warriors are playing 7 games, traveling 19612 miles crossing 24 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 21
LIKELY WIN
81% SAC
--
FEB 23
LIKELY WIN
65% HOU
--
FEB 25
LIKELY WIN
74% @CHA
2288 miles
FEB 27
LIKELY WIN
79% @MIA
2581 miles
FEB 28**
LIKELY WIN
75% @ORL
204 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY WIN
64% @PHI
2509 miles
MAR 5
LIKELY WIN
69% BOS
--
MAR 8
LIKELY WIN
77% DEN
--
MAR 10
LIKELY WIN
90% PHO
--
MAR 13
LIKELY WIN
64% @HOU
1633 miles

The Golden State Warriors' next game is on February 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Kevin Durant40100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2)
Stephen Curry37.8100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #9)
DeMarcus Cousins29.6100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #19)
Draymond Green28.198% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #26)
Klay Thompson27100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #17)
Andre Iguodala168% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #100)