headshot
Paul
Millsap
College Louisiana Tech
Team Denver Nuggets
4PF
6'8"Height
246Weight
34Age
12Exp
Paul Millsap's Fantasy Scouting Report

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Millsap is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 28.5 DK pts (#3 among power forwards). He is the #4 highest priced power forward ($5500). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $5.8K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Based on salary, he is expected to have 27.1 FPs, a value reached in 36 of 85 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for power forwards priced at $4.0K and above is 50%.

  • 4/20 MATCHUP: DEN @ SA, DEN Vegas Line Expectation 102.2 Points (#8 most points for the day)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 28.5 Fantasy Points (#3), 13 pts (#3), 7.1 reb (#3), 2.2 ast (#3), 0.8 stl (#1), 0.7 blk (#3), 1 3pt (#3), 1.5 turnovers (#2 most)

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 26.7 FanDuel pts Paul Millsap is the #4 ranked power forward. At $6000 he is expected to be the #5 power forward. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.5K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 24.6 FPs, a value reached in 41 of 85 games (48%). The combined 'cover percentage' for power forwards priced at $4.0K and above is 41%.

Millsap is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Paul Millsap has had an OK fantasy season if you were expecting to have him on the bench and only start in certain weeks. He is the number #15 ranked power forward and the #92 ranked player overall. His ranking drops to the #21 ranked power forward when basing it on average fantasy points. Millsap did not show a clear upward or downward trend as the season progressed. He averaged 25.3 FPs in his first 23 games, 22.2 in the middle of his season and 25.5 in his final 25.5 games. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. He averaged 24.3 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 48 fantasy points with a floor of 6 points.

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DOWNWARD STATISTICAL CAREER TREND

It looks like getting older is hurting fantasy production. His average Fantasy points have dropped by 26% over this time frame. His minutes per game have decreased and his usage is down.

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 74 fantasy points per week and had 7 weeks where he exceeded that by 20% and 4 'bad' weeks where he came up 20% short of his average.

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 27.4 points and on DraftKings it was 28.7 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 14.8 and on FanDuel it was 12.5 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 43.8 and 45 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

Career Stats
YEARTEAMGMINFGFGAFGP3PT3PTA3PTPFTFTAFTPPTSPPG
2018DEN70189532266548.45815936.518124972.788312.61
2017DEN38114420243546.43911334.511216169.655514.61
2016ATL69234343097244.27524131.131140576.8124618.06
2015ATL812647501106647.07423231.930940875.7138517.10
2014ATL73239044393047.67721635.625533775.7121816.68
2013ATL742482483104746.17621235.828639173.1132817.95
2012UTA78237542987549.0133933.326435674.2113514.55
2011UTA64210042686149.573122.620225579.2106116.58
2010UTA76260552598853.192339.125633875.7131517.30
2009UTA82227738571653.81911.118326469.395411.63
2008UTA76229040074953.4040.022832669.9102813.53
2007UTA82170225350250.4040.015522967.76618.06
2006UTA82147220939852.51333.314020867.35596.82
Career (13 Seasons)9452772050081020449.1430128633.42882392773.41332814.10
YEARTEAMGMINTRBRPGASTAPGSTSPGBKBPGTO
2018DEN7018955057.211412.01831.19540.7795
2017DEN3811442456.451052.76391.03441.1673
2016ATL6923435337.722523.65901.30620.90158
2015ATL8126477329.042653.271471.811391.72191
2014ATL7323905707.812233.051301.78690.95166
2013ATL7424826278.472323.141291.74781.05185
2012UTA7823755547.102012.581021.31801.03138
2011UTA6421005638.801502.341181.84520.81112
2010UTA7626055797.621872.461031.36690.91145
2009UTA8222775596.821311.60640.78991.21116
2008UTA7622906548.611381.82781.03730.96129
2007UTA8217024605.61810.99720.88730.8987
2006UTA8214724235.16620.76670.82740.9094
Career (13 Seasons)9452772070047.4121682.2912221.299661.021689
2018-19 Situational Stats
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
October Games7199306741424335697118812.6
November Games1539081153163634489934251521214.1
December Games4951534261418197234611.5
January Games163976313662540561062618617210.8
February Games822142799231626711614910913.6
March Games1546673154164141521223815820313.5
April Games5126184251412163211225310.6
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
Wins49136725347743105130176382107653667913.9
Losses2152869188155451731233418182049.7
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
Home Games36985191360368811215628377532853014.7
Road Games349091313052271699322264302635310.4
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
Before All-Star Game461181207423329111616030787573956212.2
After All-Star Game247141152422668658919854261532113.4
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
Starting Forward65178829961655145171231474132755182412.7
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
AT&T Center - San Antonio, TX, USA1302813001121055
American Airlines Center - Dallas, TX, USA1326141345132311717
AmericanAirlines Arena - Miami, FL, USA130511022394111212
Amway Center - Orlando, FL, USA133610224782001818
Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN127281212511066
Capital One Arena - Washington, DC, USA13568221262311515
Chesapeake Energy Arena - Oklahoma City, O2559154502115112211
FedExForum - Memphis, TN, USA2491120244822163
Fiserv Forum129390422921188
Golden 1 Center - Sacramento, CA, USA12236123462001010
Madison Square Garden - New York, NY, USA1323120222940088
Moda Center - Portland, OR, USA1369162322104402222
ORACLE Arena - Oakland, CA, USA2367203933123012010
Pepsi Center - Denver, CO, USA36985191360368811215628377532853014.7
Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, OH, USA12169113461101616
STAPLES Center - Los Angeles, CA, USA3991131061114295143311
Scotiabank Arena - Toronto, Ontario, Canad130290222831066
Smoothie King Center - New Orleans, LA, US255818044795042010
Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC, USA11948018931121616
TD Garden - Boston, MA, USA127471333115001212
Talking Stick Resort Arena - Phoenix, AZ,246719022511322168
Target Center - Minneapolis, MN, USA2481115231282512512.5
Toyota Center - Houston, TX, USA24461301225222147
United Center - Chicago, IL, USA133812122361031919
Vivint Smart Home Arena - Salt Lake City,2402150534910173.5
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
vs. Atlanta125813121195421818
vs. Boston2557162567197012211
vs. Brooklyn127480136110011111
vs. Charlotte246112214111394523417
vs. Chicago25813183447143133316.5
vs. Cleveland24413201234112303015
vs. Dallas26920332689215415025
vs. Detroit1402101356135111010
vs. Golden State483133531361121642358.8
vs. Houston498142736666953379.2
vs. Indiana2617191569184112110.5
vs. L.A. Clippers3861129271622412534013.3
vs. L.A. Lakers39119380644247154214
vs. Memphis2491120244822163
vs. Miami2509201623195332110.5
vs. Milwaukee2609235121013178133316.5
vs. Minnesota4114223481158217625714.2
vs. New Orleans4119183841214202410675413.5
vs. New York25492506612186202412
vs. Oklahoma City38313224648216323411.3
vs. Orlando257111822811154223216
vs. Philadelphia117120022410044
vs. Phoenix41001837251216307645012.5
vs. Portland3942235351112236505819.3
vs. San Antonio25131215121652084
vs. Sacramento375193236911244325016.7
vs. Toronto130290222831066
vs. Utah49314373124919342358.8
vs. Washington26692123811215312814
CATEGORYGMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBASTLBLKPTSAVG
Regular Season Games70189532266558159181249505141835488312.6
Overall70189532266558159181249505141835488312.6
2018 Game Log
OCTOBERSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
10/17@W107-9830170191213160112211
10/20vsW 119-913251001446102123314
10/21vsW 100-982617023846131125
10/23vsW 126-112226101222350110215
10/25@L121-1142839020035202336
10/29vsW 116-111276122444583113218
10/31@W108-107338131223561031219
NOVEMBERSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
11/01@W110-9121691134461100316
11/03vsW 103-88236101301452302213
11/05vsW 115-10728391234582011110
11/07@L89-872017010023110222
11/09vsL112-110274801367110013211
11/11vsL121-1143161458811586020325
11/13vsL109-9926481244001203513
11/15vsW 138-93258131211695421218
11/17@L125-1152238031301302137
11/19@L104-982939042279211138
11/21@W103-1012811132212450511425
11/23vsW 112-8724580044672222314
11/24@W105-982837230266311138
11/27vsW 117-852391401226112121120
11/30@W113-1123691623225104403522
DECEMBERSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
12/03@W106-1033029022278310326
12/05@W124-118336102247882002118
12/07@L113-10719480189131121416
12/29@W122-1181437010000101006
JANUARYSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
01/01vsW 115-1082261304410792200516
01/03@W117-11322361234562000410
01/05vsW 123-110277141334263402118
01/07@L125-1132226002213201026
01/08@W103-99305110223594111012
01/10vsW 121-1002429014479010138
01/12@L102-933241201257112212110
01/13vsW 116-11327470033360002211
01/15vsL142-11121580200332100310
01/17vsW 135-10525562224682101414
01/19vsW 124-102237110100351200114
01/23@L114-1081818030035000112
01/25vsW 132-9522682267792302220
01/26vsW 126-1101712002234100034
01/28@W95-922905014455111244
01/30@W105-99345100134482021313
FEBRUARYSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
02/01vsW 136-12228462300116111210
02/02@W107-1062102010023200120
02/11vsW 103-8720491400710122239
02/13vsW 120-11831101612459132210225
02/22@W114-1043261413458132311417
02/24vsW 123-9632813253611162322121
02/26vsW 121-112274701466101213312
02/28vsL111-104306122414450111415
MARCHSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
03/02vsL120-11236482469772522316
03/04@L104-103302813001111210045
03/06@W115-99407150322183010416
03/08@L122-1051638142234100249
03/12vsW 133-107338124534452112323
03/14vsW 100-993614191344783100433
03/16vsW 102-10034511035712133011415
03/18@W114-105274713337115001412
03/21@W113-10835682212662313115
03/22@W111-9332312022249400028
03/24@L124-882728121225110136
03/26vsW 95-9240210135611135113210
03/28@L112-852247010022021228
03/29@W115-10527682200352002314
03/31vsL95-903131301799153001213
APRILSHOOTINGREBOUNDSSTATS
DATETEAMOPPRESULTMINFGFGAFG3FG3AFTFTAREBTREBASTLBLKTOPFPTS
04/02@L116-102204122511482011211
04/03vsW 113-852114021245310023
04/05vsW 119-110309121267472104425
04/09@L118-1082217023434101135
04/10vsW 99-953237231278300229