College Football Rivalry Week Best Bets (11/30): Lean Minnesota over Wisconsin

We ran 10,000 computer simulations to predict the outcomes of every FBS College Football matchup. Here are the best bets in week 14. 

Louisville Cardinals vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST @Kentucky

Spread: UK -3.5

O/U: 52.5

SportsLine Projected Score: Lousiville 21- Kentucky 31

Preview: While Louisville has improved this season in almost every offensive category, I think this game plays into Kentucky's favor. Kentucky QB/WR Lynn Bowden is averaging 140 yards rushing/game since taking over at QB, and the Wildcats are averaging 250 yards/game on the ground as a team this season. Louisville is allowing 183 yards rushing per game, and I could see the Wildcats having success on the ground. Louisville is scoring on 10.1% of their passing attempts on the road this season, while Kentucky is allowing a passing TD on just 2% of attempts. The Cardinals have struggled against the better defenses that they have faced, scoring just 17 against Notre Dame and 10 against Clemson.

Prediction: We have Kentucky winning in 68.5% of our simulations, and they have good value at -163 ML. 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Syracuse Orange

Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST @Syracuse

Spread: Wake -3.5

O/U: 68.5

SportsLine Projected Score: Wake 38- Syracuse 25

Preview: Syracuse is just 1-3 at home this season and have been outscored by an average of 14 points in those 4 games. Wake Forest has lost their last two road games after starting the season 2-0 on the road, but those games were against Clemson and Virginia Tech, two of the ACC's best teams. Wake Forest has scored a TD on 6.4% of pass attempts on the road this season, while Syracuse is allowing a TD on 7.6% of pass attempts. I think Wake QB Jamie Newman could be in line for a big day against the Cuse.

Prediction: We have an A pick on Wake -183 ML, and I think that is a solid bet.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST @Minnesota

Spread: Wisconsin -3


SportsLine Projected Score: Wisconsin 23- Minnesota 26

Preview: Wisconsin is 2-2 on the road this season, while Minnesota is 5-0 at home this season. Minnesota still has an outside shot at making the playoffs with just 1 loss, so they will be fired up for this game. Minnesota is scoring on 11.7% of passing attempts at home this season, which is up 4.4% from last season. Wisconsin hasn't been bad defending the pass, but they have been worse this year than last. I can see Minnesota WRs Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman giving the Wisconsin secondary fits. 

Prediction: Minnesota at +130 ML is very good value, especially at home. Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, while Minnesota is has covered in 7 of 8.