College Football Win Totals ACC: Bet the Over on Wake Forest...Bet Under on UNC and Miami

Each team's average win total is based on 10,000 computer simulations. I don't agree with every projection that our computers make, but I will explain whether I am leaning one way or another.  

Previous Conference Win Totals:

BIG10 Win Totals

Best ACC Over Bets:

WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS PROJECTED WINS 7.1 (ODDS 6 -130o, +110u)

Dave Clawson has done a great job of turning Wake Forest's offense around since he arrived. Wake Forest has had back-to-back seasons of averaging 30+ points after averaging under 15 in his first season. For the second straight season QBs Jamie Newman and Sam Hartman are battling for the starting job. Both players had good moments last year. If I were to guess, I think Newman comes out on top this season. 1,000 yard rusher Cade Carney is back and although the loss of second leading rusher Matt Colburn hurts, Christian Beal looks like a good option as the #2 back. 1,000 yard receiver Greg Dortch is off to the NFL, but the Deamon Deacons return Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington to a WR group that should be pretty good and brings in a talented group of Freshman. The Offensive Line has to replace several starters which is concerning. I think Wake should have similar production on offense this season.

The defense struggled last seaon, especially against top competition like Clemson and Notre Dame. Wake does return a good chunk of defensive production this season, however. The interior DL is going to have a bunch of new faces, but edge rusher Carlos Basham returns and should be one of the better defenders in the team. Leading tackler Justin Strnad is back at LB, but the depth is a bit of a concern at LB this season. DBs Amari Henderson and Essang Bassey are back, but not a whole lot returns at either safety position. I think Wake Forest will have similar production on defense this season. I think Wake Forest is capable of winning 7 or 8 games this season if the defense can step up.

BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES PROJECTED WINS 7.6 (ODDS 6 -130o, +110u)

Boston College loses a lot of production and experience on offense heading into 2019. The Eagles lose a first-round draft pick with Offensive Lineman Chris Lindstrom off to the NFL. Stud RB AJ Dillon returns but will be running behind an o-line with a lot of inexperience. Starting QB Anthony Brown will be back in 2019 along with leading receiver Kobay White, but key contributors TE Tommy Sweeney, WR Michael Walker, and WR Jeff Smith are all gone from last year's team. Under HC Steve Addazio, the Eagles have increased their offensive output each year since 2015, but I believe that this trend will end this season. I expect BC to average around 25 PPG on offense in 2019.

Similar to the offense, the Eagles defense loses a lot of production from last season. Most notably is the departure of DE Zach Allen who the Cardinals took in the 3rd Round of the NFL Draft. Also gone are LB Connor Stratchan, DE Wyatt Ray, CB Hamp Cheevers, and DB Lukas Denis. Those are players that will not be easily replaced. Clemson grad-transfer Richard Yeargin, a player that was forced to medically retire after a serious car crash several years ago, could possibly be someone who steps up if he truly is healthy enough to play football again. LB Isaiah McDuffie and DB Brandon Sebastian are returning starters that will play a big role in the success of the Eagles this season. I expect Boston College's defense to take a step back this season, even though their schedule looks favorable besides games against Notre Dame and defending champs Clemson. Expect the Eagles to give up similar numbers to the 25.7 points allowed per game last season but not be as effective. While our simulations like Boston College to win 7.6 games this season, I see them as more of a 6 win team. If I were to bet on them, I would lean on the over but would probably stay away. 

GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS PROJECTED WINS 5.4 (ODDS 3.5 -160o, +140u)

Paul Johnson and his triple-option offense are gone, and former Temple HC Geoff Collins takes over as Head Coach of the Yellow Jackets. It will be interesting to see how long the Yellow Jackets take to adjust to their new offense under Collins. Tobias Oliver has the most experience at the QB position, but he is more of a runner than a passer. QB Lucas Johnson might have an opportunity to win the job with his passing ability, but Oliver could still see the field even if he doesn't win the job. Jordan Mason should be the bellcow at RB this season. Jalen Camp is the most experienced receiver, and several others will need to emerge as the offense undergoes a change in style. The offensive production is hard to predict, but I expect a bit of a drop off this season. I expect the Yellow Jackets to average 20-25 PPG on offense this season.

Georgia Tech loses 7 starters from last season, as well as the top 3 tacklers from last season. Tre Swilling and David Curry should be the leaders of this defense, which will to replace a lot of production. Florida grad-transfer DE Antonneous Clayton is a player to watch this season. I expect Georgia Tech to give up north of 30 points per game this season after losing so much. Don't be surprised if they finish in the bottom half of the ACC with around 4 wins as they adjust to their new system and coach. The Vegas Odds have set the O/U win total at 3.5 for Georgia Tech. While I think they will finish at the bottom of the ACC, their relatively easy schedule could help them hit the over.

Best ACC Under Bets

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS PROJECTED WINS 3.7 (ODDS 5.5 +110o, -130u)

North Carolina and new (old) HC Mac Brown got a huge recruiting win when they were able to snag Sam Howell away from FSU. Howell should be the starter for the Tar Heels right away during their rebuild, but he will have to hold off Jace Ruder and Cade Fortin to win the job. Regardless, the QB play should be much improved from last season. RBs Antonio Williams and Michael Carter both return this season and should get more touches after Carter averaged 7.1 YPC and Williams 5.5 YPC. Javonte Williams should get plenty of touches as well after impressing in the Spring and with Jordon Brown transferring. Leading receiver Anthony Ratliff-Williams bolted for the NFL, but Dazz Newsome returns and Dyami Brown is a possible breakout candidate out wide. The OL needs to be more consistent but will have tremendous size. TE Brandon Fritts is back from injury and will make a good pair with TE Carl Tucker. The offense averaged over 440 yards per game last season but couldn't score the ball. They should average much more than 27.4 in Mac Brown's air raid style offense if Howell is ready to play as a Freshman.

The defense struggled with injury and suspensions last season while finishing 107 out of 130 teams at 34.5 points allowed per game. The top-3 leading tacklers are gone from last season which doesn't help either. Defensive lineman Jason Strowbridge and Aaron Crawford need to step up their play in the interior this season. OLB Tomon Fox had 8.5 TFL last season but needs to get to the QB more this season. LB Dominique Ross is back as well as S Myles Dorn and CB Patrice Rene. The defense doesn't present much optimism, but they should slightly improve if everyone can stay healthy. This will be a bit of a rebuilding year for UNC, and it will be difficult to win more than 4 games with this defense.

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS PROJECTED WINS 4.6 (ODDS 6 -110o, -110u)

Despite finishing just 7-7 last season, Pitt finished atop the ACC Coastal division and made the ACC Championship. Kenny Pickett returns at QB and while he won't put up huge numbers, he doesn't make too many mistakes. Pitt loses two 1,000 yard rushers from last season in Darrin Hall and Quadree Ollison. AJ Carter and Mychale Salahuddin should get the majority of carries along with converted DB and WR V'Lique Carter. Leading receivers Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench return this season. The offense should have similar production to the 25 PPG that they averaged last year. If the run game can't get going that number can go down, but if Pickett is improved, the offense could improve a little. However, I think its more likely that the offense takes a bit of a dip.

The defense held its ground for much of last season outside of blowouts against Penn State and Clemson. Patrick Jones, Amir Watt, and Rashad Weaver make up a solid DL. The secondary might be one of the more underrated groups. S Damar Hamlin and CB Dane Jackson make up one of the better DB duos in the ACC. If the defense can hold its ground against Penn State, it should be improved this season. I expect Pitt to give up around 25 PPG next season. Pitt should be a 5 or 6 win team next year.

MIAMI (FLA.) HURRICANES PROJECTED WINS 7.9 (ODDS 8.5 -130o, +110u)

The Hurricanes utilized the transfer portal during the offseason, adding a ton of former top recruits. QB Tate Martell transfered in from Ohio State, but he lost the QB battle to RS-Fr. Jarren Willimas. RB Travis Homer is gone, but Lorenzo Lingard, Cam'Ron Harris, and DeeJay Dallas all return. Look for Lorenzo Lingard to take a big leap this season. A ton of talent is back at WR. Jeff Tomas returns after flirting with transfering, and Mike Harley is back this season as well. Mark Pope, Brian Hightower, and Dee Wiggins are entering their Sophomore seasons, and one or more of them should emerge this season. Buffalo transfer WR K.J. Osborne impressed this offseason and will more than likely be a starter out wide. Brevin Jordan should become one of the better Tight Ends in the nation this season, and TE Will Mallory should also step up this season. Miami should average well above 30 if they can find a QB to lead the team. Week 1 against Florida will be a big test.

The defense should be strong again in 2019. Joe Jackson and Gerald Willis are gone on the DL, but DE Jon Garvin returns after having 17.5 TFL last season. Gregory Rousseau is a breakout candidate at DE The LBs sho.uld be the strength of the Hurricanes' defense. Shaq Quarterman, Michael Pinkney, and Zach McCloud all returning for their Senior years. The secondary loses Jaquan Johnson, Michael Jackson, and Sheldrick Redwine, but Trajan Bandy and several other young players return. The defense gave up 19.8 PPG last season and should have similar production this season. A slight decline wouldn't surprise me because of the losses in the secondary, but the LB group is one of the best in the country.

ACC Pushes

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS PROJECTED WINS 7.7 (ODDS 8 +120o, -140u)

Bryce Perkins proved to be an excellent fit in Virginia' offense last season, finishing with nearly 2700 yards through the air as well as almost 1,000 yards on the ground. RB Jordan Ellis is gone after a 1,000 yard season and no other RB on the roster had over 100 yards  last season. 1,000 yard reciever Olamide Zacceaus is gone as well, but Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed are solid targets that are returning. UVA is also bringing in grad-transfer WRs Dejon Brissett and Terrell Chapman which should help. The OL should be solid this season and return 3 starters. I expect similar offensive production this season from Virginia. However, they will need to have a RB step up.

Although Virginia lost Chris Peace and S Juan Thornhill, the defense brings back 8 of the top 10 tacklers from a defense that ranked 21st in the country allowing just 20.1 PPG. The LB group should be very solid with Jordan Mack and Charles Snowden returning. S Juan Thornhill is a big loss, but CB Bryce Hall is one of the best at his position in the country, and Safeties Joey Blount and Brenton Nelson were key contributors last season. The defense should have similar production this season. I think Virginia will win around 8 games again next season.

SYRACUSE ORANGE PROJECTED WINS 7.5 (ODDS 8 +140o, -160u)

The future looks bright for the Orange and HC Dino Babers after going 10-3 last season and nearly beating National Champs Clemson for a second-straight season. QB Eric Dungey is gone after playing what seems like 10 years for the Orange. Tommy DeVito takes over for Dungey and he is a favorite pick of many experts to break out this season. Leading rusher Moe Neal returns along with Oklahoma transfer Abdul Adams and rising Sophomore Jarveon Howard. Leading receiver Jamal Custis is gone, but the Orange return three receivers that had 500+ yards last season in Sean Riley, Nykiem Johson, and Taj Harris. Expect a big season from Taj Harris this year. Michigan State transfer Trishton Jackson could play a signifant role at WR as well. The offense ranked 11th at 40.2 PPG. I wouldn't be surprised if that number falls off just a bit with the loss of Dungey. DeVito looks like he is capable of putting up big numbers, but it might take a week or two before we can truly evaluate his talent. K Andre Smytz led the nation with 30 made FG as a RS-Fr. last season and is an important piece to this team.

The defense finished 6th in the nation in sacks last year and returns their two best pass rushers in Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman, who each had 10 sacks. The loss of Chris Slayton stings, but Josh Black, McKinley Williams, and Kenneth Ruff are back at DT. The LB group is young but full of plenty of players capable of stepping up. The secondary should be very good next season and gets back CB Christopher Frederick and S Andre Cisco. Cisco had 7 picks and 11 PBUs as a Freshman last season. The defense gave up 27.0 PPG last season, and I think they are very capable of improving this season. I think Syracuse has a good shot at winning 10 games again this season. The computer is projecting Syracuse to win under 8 games, but I would lean towards a push or over.