Atlanta
Falcons
Stadium Georgia Dome
4-5-0 Overall | 2-1 NFC SOUTH 3rd
TEAM STATSRUSHINGPASSINGPTS/G
Offense89.8337.227.1
Defense119.9307.328.2
Schedule
Regular season
Week 1Thu  9/6
@
Eagles
L12-18
Week 2Sun  9/16
vs
Panthers
W31-24
Week 3Sun  9/23
vs
Saints
L / OT37-43
Week 4Sun  9/30
vs
Bengals
L36-37
Week 5Sun  10/7
@
Steelers
L17-41
Week 6Sun  10/14
vs
Buccaneers
W34-29
Week 7Mon  10/22
vs
Giants
W23-20
Week 9Sun  11/4
@
Redskins
W38-14
Week 10Sun  11/11
@
Browns
L16-28
Week 11Sun  11/18
vs
Cowboys
FOX1:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Falcons are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 40% chance of making the playoffs. On 9/17 they had a 61.8% chance before dropping to 11.5% on 10/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 17.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NFC at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 56% #6 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #10 Toughest

Falcons' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 4-5 the Falcons are behind their money line projected win total of 5.1 wins. They have 3 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 1-3 road record is -25% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 2-1, 67%. The Falcons should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 10/23.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The forecast for their next 4 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. They have a 2.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
53% DAL
--
NOV 22
LIKELY LOSS
30% @NO
425 miles
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
48% BAL
--
DEC 9
CLOSE GAME
41% @GB
769 miles
DEC 16
LIKELY WIN
72% ARI
--
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
44% @CAR
226 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
58% @TB
415 miles

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
23 Alford, Robert CB5-1018611/01/19886Southeastern Louisiana
69 Beadles, Zane G6-430511/19/19869Utah
44 Beasley, Vic DE6-324607/08/19924Clemson
28 Bethel, Justin DB6-020006/17/19907Presbyterian
5 Bosher, Matt P6-020810/18/19878Miami (FL)
3 Bryant, Matt K5-920305/29/197517Baylor
59 Campbell, De'Vondre OLB6-323407/01/19933Minnesota
55 Carter, Bruce LB6-224002/19/19888North Carolina
26 Coleman, Tevin RB6-121004/16/19934Indiana
95 Crawford, Jack DT6-527409/07/19887Penn State
83 Gage, Russell WR6-018401/22/19960LSU
63 Garland, Ben G6-530804/06/19885Air Force
77 Gono, Matt T6-430505/10/19960Wesley College
17 Hall, Marvin WR5-1019004/10/19932Washington
14 Hardy, Justin WR5-1019212/18/19914East Carolina
47 Harris, Josh LS6-124004/27/19897Auburn
32 Hill, Brian RB6-121911/09/19952Wyoming
81 Hooper, Austin TE6-325410/29/19943Stanford
52 Irvin, Bruce DE6-325011/01/19877West Virginia
36 Ishmael, Kemal DB6-020605/06/19916UCF
97 Jarrett, Grady DT6-030504/28/19934Clemson
45 Jones, Deion LB6-122211/04/19943LSU
11 Jones, Julio WR6-322002/08/19898Alabama
27 Kazee, Damontae SS5-1117406/05/19932San Diego State
51 Mack, Alex C6-431111/19/198510California
70 Matthews, Jake T6-530902/11/19925Texas A&M
99 McClain, Terrell DT6-230007/20/19888South Florida
98 McKinley, Takkarist DE6-225011/02/19952UCLA
56 Means, Steven DE6-326309/16/19904Buffalo
41 Neasman, Sharrod DB6-019810/14/19913Florida Atlantic
20 Oliver, Isaiah FS6-021009/30/19960Colorado
54 Oluokun, Foye LB6-222908/02/19950Yale
30 Ortiz, Ricky FB6-023604/15/19921Oregon State
82 Paulsen, Logan TE6-526802/26/19879UCLA
34 Poole, Brian CB5-921310/20/19923Florida
50 Reed, Brooks DE6-325402/28/19878Arizona
29 Richards, Jordan FS5-1121001/21/19934Stanford
18 Ridley, Calvin WR6-119012/20/19940Alabama
42 Riley, Duke MLB6-121808/09/19942LSU
2 Ryan, Matt QB6-421705/17/198511Boston College
74 Sambrailo, Ty T6-531103/10/19924Colorado State
12 Sanu, Mohamed WR6-221008/22/19897Rutgers
85 Saubert, Eric TE6-525305/01/19942Drake
8 Schaub, Matt QB6-624506/25/198115Virginia
73 Schraeder, Ryan T6-730005/04/19886Valdosta State
71 Schweitzer, Wes G6-430009/11/19933San Jose State
94 Senat, Deadrin DT6-031407/22/19940South Florida
90 Shelby, Derrick DE6-228003/04/19897Utah
25 Smith, Ito RB5-919509/11/19950Southern Miss
35 Tandy, Keith DB5-1020502/12/19897West Virginia
4 Tavecchio, Giorgio K5-1018007/16/19902California
21 Trufant, Desmond CB6-019009/10/19906Washington
33 Wreh-Wilson, Blidi DB6-119012/05/19896Connecticut