LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Ravens are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 63.6% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/5 they had a 90.3% chance before dropping to 13.3% on 11/11. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 16.8%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 86.1%. They have a 3.6% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 5/1 to win the division which has an implied probability of 16.7%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AFC at 2.2% (45/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 44% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 67% #1 Toughest

Ravens' Season Forecast Changes

Stream Baltimore games with SlingTV

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 4-5 the Ravens are behind their money line projected win total of 5.2 wins. They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 2-3 road record is -12% lower than expected. Their 2-2 home record is -12% lower. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 8.1% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 25.6% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Ravens are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.6% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 10/16.

They are an average team in points per game. Offensively, they are the #17 ranked team in yards per play. They are the #18 ranked team in offensive TD rate [(PassTD + RushTD) / (Pass Att + Rush Att)]. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The forecast for their next 4 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have a 6.4 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
LIKELY WIN
63% CIN
--
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
78% OAK
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
52% @ATL
577 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
29% @KC
956 miles
DEC 16
LIKELY WIN
73% TB
--
DEC 22
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LAC
2320 miles
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
67% CLE
--

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.