Buffalo
Bills
Stadium New Era Field
3-7-0 Overall | 1-1 AFC EAST 3rd
TEAM STATSRUSHINGPASSINGPTS/G
Offense108.818413.7
Defense99.8216.625.1
Schedule
Regular season
Week 1Sun  9/9
@
Ravens
L3-47
Week 2Sun  9/16
vs
Chargers
L20-31
Week 3Sun  9/23
@
Vikings
W27-6
Week 4Sun  9/30
@
Packers
L0-22
Week 5Sun  10/7
vs
Titans
W13-12
Week 6Sun  10/14
@
Texans
L13-20
Week 7Sun  10/21
@
Colts
L5-37
Week 8Mon  10/29
vs
Patriots
L6-25
Week 9Sun  11/4
vs
Bears
L9-41
Week 10Sun  11/11
@
Jets
W41-10
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 3-7 the Bills are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 2.2 wins. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 2-4 road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (1-3, 25%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Bills played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 32.3% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #26 in the league back on 9/25.

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The Bills next 4 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They are are the clear underdog in 4 out of the 4 games. They have a 1.5 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

NOV 25
LIKELY LOSS
37% JAC
--
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
27% @MIA
1166 miles
DEC 9
CLOSE GAME
44% NYJ
--
DEC 16
LIKELY LOSS
33% DET
--
DEC 23
LIKELY LOSS
14% @NE
387 miles
DEC 30
LIKELY LOSS
40% MIA
--

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Bills were projected to win 6.3 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 8/17 their projected win total was up to 6.6 before dropping to 4 on 11/9. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 5 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 44% #9 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 56% #5 Toughest

Bills' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
57 Alexander, Lorenzo OLB6-124505/31/198312California
17 Allen, Josh QB6-523705/21/19960Wyoming
3 Anderson, Derek QB6-623506/15/198314Oregon State
5 Barkley, Matt QB6-222709/08/19906USC
13 Benjamin, Kelvin WR6-524502/05/19915Florida State
66 Bodine, Russell C6-330806/30/19925North Carolina
20 Bush, Rafael DB5-1120305/12/19878South Carolina State
85 Clay, Charles TE6-325502/13/19898Tulsa
80 Croom, Jason TE6-524602/28/19941Tennessee
73 Dawkins, Dion T6-532004/26/19942Temple
42 DiMarco, Patrick RB6-123404/30/19897South Carolina
62 Ducasse, Vladimir G6-532910/15/19879Massachusetts
49 Edmunds, Tremaine MLB6-525005/02/19980Virginia Tech
69 Ferguson, Reid LS6-223503/24/19942LSU
16 Foster, Robert WR6-219605/07/19940Alabama
72 Groy, Ryan C6-532009/30/19905Wisconsin
4 Hauschka, Stephen K6-421006/29/198511NC State
18 Holmes, Andre WR6-421006/16/19887Hillsdale
55 Hughes, Jerry DE6-225408/13/19889TCU
23 Hyde, Micah SS6-019712/31/19906Iowa
33 Ivory, Chris RB6-022303/22/19889Tiffin University
24 Johnson, Taron CB5-1119207/27/19960Weber State
11 Jones, Zay WR6-220003/30/19952East Carolina
44 Lacey, Deon LB6-323507/18/19902West Alabama
90 Lawson, Shaq DE6-326706/17/19943Clemson
38 Lewis, Ryan CB6-019504/15/19941Pittsburgh
98 Lotulelei, Star DT6-231512/20/19896Utah
14 McCloud, Ray-Ray WR5-919010/15/19960Clemson
25 McCoy, LeSean RB5-1121007/12/198810Pittsburgh
68 McDermott, Conor T6-830510/19/19922UCLA
19 McKenzie, Isaiah WR5-817304/09/19952Georgia
58 Milano, Matt OLB6-022307/28/19942Boston College
76 Miller, John G6-331508/12/19934Louisville
79 Mills, Jordan T6-531612/24/19906Louisiana Tech
45 Murphy, Marcus RB5-919510/03/19913Missouri
93 Murphy, Trent DE6-626012/22/19905Stanford
29 Neal, Siran DB6-020608/04/19940Jacksonville State
99 Phillips, Harrison DT6-330701/25/19960Stanford
97 Phillips, Jordan DT6-634110/15/19924Oklahoma
30 Pitts, Lafayette CB5-1119509/24/19923Pittsburgh
21 Poyer, Jordan FS6-019104/25/19916Oregon State
6 Schmidt, Colton P5-1122410/27/19905California-Davis
74 Sirles, Jeremiah G6-631508/08/19915Nebraska
51 Stanford, Julian LB6-123009/02/19905Wagner
75 Teller, Wyatt G6-431411/21/19940Virginia Tech
82 Thomas, Logan TE6-625007/01/19914Virginia Tech
47 Wallace, Levi DB6-017906/12/19950Alabama
27 White, Tre'Davious CB5-1119201/16/19952LSU
95 Williams, Kyle DT6-130306/10/198313LSU
54 Yarbrough, Eddie DE6-325904/24/19932Wyoming