Chicago
Bears
Stadium Soldier Field
7-3-0 Overall | 2-1 NFC NORTH 1st
TEAM STATSRUSHINGPASSINGPTS/G
Offense122.9246.929.4
Defense77.8256.519.5
Schedule
Regular season
Week 1Sun  9/9
@
Packers
L23-24
Week 2Mon  9/17
vs
Seahawks
W24-17
Week 3Sun  9/23
@
Cardinals
W16-14
Week 4Sun  9/30
vs
Buccaneers
W48-10
Week 6Sun  10/14
@
Dolphins
L / OT28-31
Week 7Sun  10/21
vs
Patriots
L31-38
Week 8Sun  10/28
vs
Jets
W24-10
Week 9Sun  11/4
@
Bills
W41-9
Week 10Sun  11/11
vs
Lions
W34-22
Week 11Sun  11/18
vs
Vikings
W25-20
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Bears are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 9/5 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 4.4% on 10/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.1%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 1.2%. They have a 76.1% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 6/5 to win the division which has an implied probability of 45.5%. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 91% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 7.7% chance of winning the NFC (12/1) and a 3.8% chance of winning it all (25/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 43% #5 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 39% #0 Easiest

Bears' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Bears are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they only have one good win and one bad loss. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 5-1 home record is +20% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 4 in a row they have a 13.3% chance of extending that to 7 straight. The Bears should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). Their peak rank was #10 in the league back on 11/5.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The forecast for their next 4 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 7.6% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

NOV 22
CLOSE GAME
54% @DET
237 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
65% @NYG
706 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
38% LAR
--
DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
57% GB
--
DEC 23
LIKELY WIN
63% @SF
1843 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
49% @MIN
355 miles

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
38 Amos, Adrian SS6-021404/29/19934Penn State
20 Amukamara, Prince CB6-020406/06/19898Nebraska
15 Bellamy, Josh WR6-020805/18/19894Louisville
84 Braunecker, Ben TE6-425202/07/19943Harvard
85 Brown, Daniel TE6-524705/26/19924James Madison
90 Bullard, Jonathan DE6-329610/22/19933Florida
46 Burton, Michael FB6-024002/01/19924Rutgers
80 Burton, Trey TE6-323510/29/19915Florida
26 Bush, Deon DB6-020508/14/19933Miami (FL)
37 Callahan, Bryce CB5-918810/23/19914Rice
29 Cohen, Tarik RB5-618107/26/19952North Carolina A&T
31 Cooper, Marcus DB6-219702/01/19906Rutgers
69 Coward, Rashaad T6-632011/06/19941Old Dominion
30 Cunningham, Benny RB5-1021807/07/19906Middle Tennessee
4 Daniel, Chase QB6-022510/07/198610Missouri
68 Daniels, James G6-429509/13/19970Iowa
49 Fitts, Kylie LB6-426010/11/19940Utah
94 Floyd, Leonard OLB6-425109/08/19923Georgia
23 Fuller, Kyle CB5-1119002/16/19925Virginia Tech
18 Gabriel, Taylor WR5-816502/17/19915Abilene Christian
91 Goldman, Eddie NT6-432001/06/19944Florida State
96 Hicks, Akiem DE6-533211/16/19897Regina (Canada)
36 Houston-Carson, DeAndre DB6-120504/13/19933William & Mary
24 Howard, Jordan RB6-022411/02/19943Indiana
47 Irving, Isaiah LB6-325406/09/19942San Jose State
45 Iyiegbuniwe, Joel LB6-123010/12/19950Western Kentucky
39 Jackson, Eddie FS6-020212/10/19922Alabama
64 Kush, Eric G6-431709/09/19896California (PA)
44 Kwiatkoski, Nick ILB6-224205/26/19933West Virginia
72 Leno Jr., Charles T6-330610/09/19915Boise State
99 Lynch, Aaron OLB6-627003/08/19935South Florida
52 Mack, Khalil OLB6-325202/22/19915Buffalo
70 Massie, Bobby T6-631708/01/19897Ole Miss
27 McManis, Sherrick DB6-119312/19/19879Northwestern
17 Miller, Anthony WR5-1119010/09/19940Memphis
33 Mizzell, Taquan RB5-1018510/21/19932Virginia
0 Nall, Ryan RB6-223212/27/19950Oregon State
98 Nichols, Bilal DT6-429009/14/19960Delaware
16 O'Donnell, Pat P6-421702/22/19915Miami (FL)
1 Parkey, Cody K6-019002/19/19925Auburn
95 Robertson-Harris, Roy DE6-729407/23/19932UTEP
12 Robinson, Allen WR6-321108/24/19935Penn State
48 Scales, Patrick LS6-423902/11/19883Utah State
87 Shaheen, Adam TE6-627010/24/19942Ashland
58 Smith, Roquan ILB6-123604/08/19970Georgia
79 Sowell, Bradley T6-731206/06/19897Ole Miss
22 Toliver, Kevin DB6-219211/24/19950LSU
59 Trevathan, Danny ILB6-123903/24/19907Kentucky
10 Trubisky, Mitchell QB6-322208/20/19942North Carolina
11 White, Kevin WR6-321606/25/19924West Virginia
65 Whitehair, Cody C6-431007/11/19923Kansas State
97 Williams, Nick DT6-431002/21/19905Samford
83 Wims, Javon WR6-421509/11/19940Georgia
78 Witzmann, Bryan G6-732006/16/19904South Dakota State