LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Bears are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 9/5 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 4.4% on 10/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.1%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 1.2%. They have a 76.1% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 6/5 to win the division which has an implied probability of 45.5%. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 91% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 7.7% chance of winning the NFC (12/1) and a 3.8% chance of winning it all (25/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 43% #5 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 39% #0 Easiest

Bears' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Bears are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they only have one good win and one bad loss. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 5-1 home record is +20% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 4 in a row they have a 13.3% chance of extending that to 7 straight. The Bears should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). Their peak rank was #10 in the league back on 11/5.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The forecast for their next 4 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 7.6% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 22
CLOSE GAME
54% @DET
237 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
65% @NYG
706 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
38% LAR
--
DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
57% GB
--
DEC 23
LIKELY WIN
63% @SF
1843 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
49% @MIN
355 miles

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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.