SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

The Bears have a 36% chance to repeat as AFC North Champs. The Packers are at 27% and the Vikings are at 21%. Their defense is not expected to be quite as good statistically because they lost their defensive coordinator, a few key players and Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford are healthy.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Bears may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their odds (14/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 6.7%. Their simulation based probability is 3.6%. They have a a 3.6 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 7/1, 12.5%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 9.5 wins. Their 12 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 5-3 on the road and were expected to win 4.7. They won 7 at home and were expected to win 4.9. Anyone who backed the Bears in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +260 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +760 profit risking 110 to win 100 (12-4 ATS). They are profitable against the spread at home and on the road. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE: