LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Bengals are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had an 8.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 9/5 they had an 8.4% chance before increasing to 54.7% on 10/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 23.4%. They have a 8% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 5/2 to win the division which has an implied probability of 28.6%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AFC at 1.1% (90/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 37% #0 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 63% #4 Toughest

Bengals' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 5-4 the Bengals are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 4.2 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins and one bad loss. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 2-2 road record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 1-2, 33%. In simulations where the Bengals played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.7% of the time (#21 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 10/9.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The forecast for their next 4 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 2% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
LIKELY LOSS
37% @BAL
423 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
45% CLE
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
46% DEN
--
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
26% @LAC
1898 miles
DEC 16
LIKELY WIN
74% OAK
--
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
41% @CLE
223 miles
DEC 30
LIKELY LOSS
26% @PIT
257 miles

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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.