SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 3-6 the Lions are behind their money line projected win total of 4 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 1-4 road record is -18% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 30.8% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations, the Lions are a below average team and won 47.2% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #28 in the league back on 9/14.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The forecast for their next 4 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 3.8% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
44% CAR
--
NOV 22
CLOSE GAME
45% CHI
--
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
27% LAR
--
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
62% @ARI
1696 miles
DEC 16
LIKELY WIN
66% @BUF
219 miles
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
47% MIN
--
DEC 30
LIKELY LOSS
39% @GB
293 miles

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Lions were projected to win 7.9 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 9/16 their projected win total was 5.8 before increasing to 8.3 on 10/26 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 6.4 wins. They have a 1.2% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 100/1 to win the division which has an implied probability of 1%. The playoffs are not likely with their 2.6% chance and a projected #12 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NFC at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #12 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #15 Toughest

Lions' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.