SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Lions were our pre-season best value to win over their Vegas win total. Even though they blew a large lead vs the Cardinals they impressed with a Week 2 win and are now poised to be a sneaky good team and threat to win the NFC North. Their odds to win it all are 80/1, 1.2% (#18). Their 0.9% chance is #16 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. They are a good bet to win the NFC at 40/1, 2.4%. Their sim chance is 2.7%. They are projected to win 8 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 6.5. Their playoff chances stand at 30.6% (17.1% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

At 1-0-1 they are obviously exceeding expectations. Based on the money lines, the Lions had an expected win percentage of 54%. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down 4 units. They are 1-1 against the spread for a -10 loss. Their over-under record is 1-1. Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 6.6-9.4. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). More of their games came in under (10) than went over (6). Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Eagles in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by T.J. Hockenson who is projected to be the #8 TE the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.