NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The Texans next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 4 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 8.2% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
51% @WAS
1233 miles
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
53% TEN
--
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
60% CLE
--
DEC 9
CLOSE GAME
52% IND
--
DEC 15
CLOSE GAME
57% @NYJ
1424 miles
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
40% @PHI
1345 miles
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
61% JAC
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 6-3 the Texans are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 5.2 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 2 good wins but they also have 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 3-2 road record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 6 in a row they have a 16.2% chance of extending that to 9 straight. The Texans should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 9/24.

They are an average team in points per game. Offensively, they are the #14 ranked team in yards per play. They are the #22 ranked team in offensive TD rate [(PassTD + RushTD) / (Pass Att + Rush Att)]. They are an elite scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Texans are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of reaching the Super Bowl. On 9/25 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 5.8% on 11/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.4%. Before the start of their 6 game winning streak they were at 0.1%. They have a 49.8% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 1/2 to win the division which has an implied probability of 66.7%. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 76% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 8.3% chance of winning the AFC (11/1) and a 3.8% chance of winning it all (25/1). In simulations they win the Super Bowl 1.6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 35% #-1 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #7 Easiest

Texans' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.