|Week 1||Sun 9/9|
|Week 2||Sun 9/16|
|Week 3||Sun 9/23|
|Week 4||Sun 9/30|
|W / OT37-34|
|Week 5||Sun 10/7|
|W / OT19-16|
|Week 6||Sun 10/14|
|Week 7||Sun 10/21|
|Week 8||Thu 10/25|
|Week 9||Sun 11/4|
|Week 11||Sun 11/18|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX
The Texans next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 4 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 8.2% of simulations.
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For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 6-3 the Texans are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 5.2 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 2 good wins but they also have 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 3-2 road record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 6 in a row they have a 16.2% chance of extending that to 9 straight. The Texans should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 9/24.
They are an average team in points per game. Offensively, they are the #14 ranked team in yards per play. They are the #22 ranked team in offensive TD rate [(PassTD + RushTD) / (Pass Att + Rush Att)]. They are an elite scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.
TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Texans are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of reaching the Super Bowl. On 9/25 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 5.8% on 11/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.4%. Before the start of their 6 game winning streak they were at 0.1%. They have a 49.8% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 1/2 to win the division which has an implied probability of 66.7%. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 76% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 8.3% chance of winning the AFC (11/1) and a 3.8% chance of winning it all (25/1). In simulations they win the Super Bowl 1.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Texans' Championship Forecast Changes
FANTASY TEAM LEADERS
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|39||Burton, Deante||DB||6-2||205||07/12/1994||1||Kansas State|
|14||Carter, DeAndre||WR||5-8||190||04/10/1993||1||Sacramento State|
|90||Clowney, Jadeveon||OLB||6-5||270||02/14/1993||5||South Carolina|
|16||Coutee, Keke||WR||5-11||180||01/14/1997||0||Texas Tech|
|53||Ejiofor, Duke||LB||6-4||275||04/24/1995||0||Wake Forest|
|93||Heath, Joel||DE||6-6||300||06/18/1993||3||Michigan State|
|38||Howell, Buddy||RB||6-1||225||03/27/1996||0||Florida Atlantic|
|24||Joseph, Johnathan||CB||5-11||185||04/16/1984||13||South Carolina|
|74||Lamm, Kendall||T||6-6||310||06/05/1992||4||Appalachian State|
|66||Martin, Nick||C||6-4||300||04/29/1993||3||Notre Dame|
|55||McKinney, Benardrick||ILB||6-4||260||11/19/1992||4||Mississippi State|
|26||Miller, Lamar||RB||5-10||220||04/25/1991||7||Miami (FL)|
|33||Moore, A.J.||DB||5-11||202||0||Ole Miss|
|52||Peters, Brian||LB||6-4||240||10/31/1988||4||Northwestern (Ia)|
|75||Rankin, Martinas||T||6-5||315||10/20/1994||0||Mississippi State|
|17||Smith, Vyncint||WR||6-3||195||06/09/1996||0||Limestone College|
|87||Thomas, Demaryius||WR||6-3||229||12/25/1987||9||Georgia Tech|
|83||Thomas, Jordan||TE||6-5||280||08/02/1996||0||Mississippi State|
|---||Weeden, Brandon||QB||6-3||230||10/14/1983||7||Oklahoma State|