|Week 1||Sun 9/9|
|Week 2||Sun 9/16|
|Week 3||Sun 9/23|
|Week 4||Sun 9/30|
|Week 5||Sun 10/7|
|Week 6||Sun 10/14|
|Week 7||Sun 10/21|
|Week 8||Sun 10/28|
|Week 10||Sun 11/11|
|Week 11||Sun 11/18|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
Before the season, the Jaguars were projected to win 9.6 games (average per simulation) but it does not look like they are going to reach that. On 9/17 their projected win total was up to 10.5 before dropping to 6.2 on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 6.2 wins. Before the start of their 5 game losing streak they were projected for 10 wins. The playoffs are not likely with their 3% chance and a projected #12 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AFC at 0.7% (135/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Jaguars' Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 3-6 Jaguars 'should have' 5 wins. They have 4 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 1-3 road record is -25% lower than expected. Their 2-3 home record is -20% lower. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 23.2% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight. Jaguars fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #0 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Jaguars played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 44.5% of the time (#22 in the league). They have moved up from #24 in the league back on 10/29.
They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.
TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX
The Jaguars next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 4.5% of simulations.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
FANTASY TEAM LEADERS
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|40||Bohanon, Tommy||FB||6-1||246||09/10/1990||5||Wake Forest|
|93||Campbell, Calais||DE||6-8||300||09/01/1986||11||Miami (FL)|
|60||Cann, A.J.||G||6-3||315||10/03/1991||4||South Carolina|
|84||Cole, Keelan||WR||6-1||194||04/20/1993||2||Kentucky Wesleyan|
|9||Cooke, Logan||P||6-5||230||07/28/1995||0||Mississippi State|
|22||Davis, Cody||DB||6-1||203||06/06/1989||6||Texas Tech|
|57||DeLuca, Nick||LB||6-3||251||01/27/1995||0||North Dakota State|
|75||Flowers, Ereck||T||6-6||334||04/25/1994||4||Miami (FL)|
|13||Greene, Rashad||WR||5-11||186||09/23/1992||4||Florida State|
|34||Hyde, Carlos||RB||6-0||229||09/20/1990||5||Ohio State|
|83||Koyack, Ben||TE||6-5||258||04/09/1993||3||Notre Dame|
|4||Lambo, Josh||K||6-0||215||11/19/1990||4||Texas A&M|
|10||Moncrief, Donte||WR||6-2||216||08/06/1993||5||Ole Miss|
|68||Norwell, Andrew||G||6-6||325||10/25/1991||5||Ohio State|
|80||O'Shaughnessy, James||TE||6-4||245||01/14/1992||4||Illinois State|
|45||Overton, Matt||LS||6-1||243||07/06/1985||7||Western Washington|
|78||Parnell, Jermey||T||6-6||326||07/20/1986||8||Ole Miss|
|23||Patmon, Tyler||DB||5-10||188||01/26/1991||4||Oklahoma State|
|20||Ramsey, Jalen||CB||6-1||208||10/24/1994||3||Florida State|
|64||Reed, Chris||G||6-5||310||07/22/1992||3||Minnesota State|
|50||Smith, Telvin||OLB||6-3||215||04/11/1991||5||Florida State|
|73||Walker, Josh||T||6-5||330||06/02/1991||4||Middle Tennessee|