Kansas City
Chiefs
Stadium Arrowhead Stadium
9-1-0 Overall | 3-0 AFC WEST 1st
TEAM STATSRUSHINGPASSINGPTS/G
Offense117.631535.3
Defense121.7310.724
Schedule
Regular season
Week 1Sun  9/9
@
Chargers
W38-28
Week 2Sun  9/16
@
Steelers
W42-37
Week 3Sun  9/23
vs
49ers
W38-27
Week 4Mon  10/1
@
Broncos
W27-23
Week 5Sun  10/7
vs
Jaguars
W30-14
Week 6Sun  10/14
@
Patriots
L40-43
Week 7Sun  10/21
vs
Bengals
W45-10
Week 8Sun  10/28
vs
Broncos
W30-23
Week 9Sun  11/4
@
Browns
W37-21
Week 10Sun  11/11
vs
Cardinals
W26-14
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Chiefs are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.6% chance of winning it all. On 9/6 they had a 1.9% chance before increasing to 17.4% on 10/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 17.1%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 14.6%. They have an 80.6% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 1/8 to win the division which has an implied probability of 88.9%. Based on the odds, they have a 40% chance of winning the AFC (3/2) and an 18.2% chance of winning it all (9/2). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 31.8% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #13 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #12 Easiest

Chiefs' Championship Forecast Changes

Stream Kansas City games with SlingTV

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 9-1 the Chiefs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.2 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 4-1 road record is +30% better than expected. Their 5-0 home record is +26% better. Winners of 4 in a row they have a 29.4% chance of extending that to 7 straight. The Chiefs perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 68% of the time (#2 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 9/1 they won just 51%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #0 winning 58.1%.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. Despite being a bottom 10 team in yards per play allowed they are an average team in points allowed per game. They are the #17 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PERFECT

The forecast for their next 4 games is very good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They have a 17.1 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
47% @LAR
1364 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
88% @OAK
1499 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
71% BAL
--
DEC 13
CLOSE GAME
56% LAC
--
DEC 23
LIKELY WIN
61% @SEA
1510 miles
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
92% OAK
--

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
73 Allen, Jeff T6-430501/08/19907Illinois
97 Bailey, Allen DE6-328803/25/19898Miami (FL)
29 Berry, Eric DB6-021212/29/19889Tennessee
7 Butker, Harrison K6-420507/14/19952Georgia Tech
2 Colquitt, Dustin P6-321005/06/198214Tennessee
17 Conley, Chris WR6-320510/25/19924Georgia
75 Erving, Cameron G6-531308/23/19924Florida State
72 Fisher, Eric T6-731501/05/19916Central Michigan
55 Ford, Dee OLB6-225203/19/19915Auburn
23 Fuller, Kendall CB5-1119802/13/19953Virginia Tech
74 Hamilton, Justin DT6-231507/27/19932Louisiana
84 Harris, Demetrius TE6-723007/29/19915Wis.-Milwaukee
4 Henne, Chad QB6-322207/02/198511Michigan
10 Hill, Tyreek WR5-1018503/01/19943West Alabama
53 Hitchens, Anthony ILB6-023506/10/19925Iowa
50 Houston, Justin OLB6-325801/12/19898Georgia
27 Hunt, Kareem RB5-1121608/06/19952Toledo
94 Jenkins, Jarvis DT6-430004/24/19888Clemson
95 Jones, Chris DE6-631007/03/19943Mississippi State
87 Kelce, Travis TE6-526010/05/19896Cincinnati
19 Kemp, Marcus WR6-421008/14/19951Hawaii
92 Kpassagnon, Tanoh LB6-728906/14/19942Villanova
24 Lucas, Jordan SS6-119008/02/19933Penn State
15 Mahomes, Patrick QB6-323009/17/19952Texas Tech
66 McKenzie, Kahlil G6-332001/03/19970Tennessee
61 Morse, Mitch C6-630504/21/19924Missouri
21 Murray, Eric SS5-1119901/07/19943Minnesota
67 Murray, James C6-530405/05/19950Holy Cross
20 Nelson, Steven CB5-1119401/22/19934Oregon State
56 Niemann, Ben LB6-223507/27/19950Iowa
91 Nnadi, Derrick NT6-131205/09/19960Florida State
44 O'Daniel, Dorian LB6-122009/04/19940Clemson
--- Parker, Ron DB6-020608/17/19878Newberry
59 Ragland, Reggie ILB6-225209/23/19933Alabama
62 Reiter, Austin C6-330011/27/19913South Florida
11 Robinson, Demarcus WR6-120309/21/19943Florida
22 Scandrick, Orlando DB5-1019602/10/198711Boise State
71 Schwartz, Mitchell T6-532006/08/19897California
30 Shaw, Josh CB6-120003/27/19924USC
42 Sherman, Anthony RB5-1024212/11/19888Connecticut
39 Smith, Tremon DB6-019007/20/19960Central Arkansas
49 Sorensen, Daniel DB6-220803/05/19905BYU
57 Speaks, Breeland OLB6-328512/18/19950Ole Miss
35 Ward, Charvarius CB6-119805/16/19960Middle Tennessee
32 Ware, Spencer RB5-1022911/23/19915LSU
14 Watkins, Sammy WR6-121106/14/19935Clemson
26 Williams, Damien RB5-1122404/03/19925Oklahoma
31 Williams, Darrel RB5-1122404/15/19950LSU
98 Williams, Xavier NT6-230901/18/19924Northern Iowa
41 Winchester, James LS6-324008/06/19894Oklahoma
77 Wylie, Andrew G6-630908/19/19941Eastern Michigan
82 Yelder, Deon TE6-425503/06/19950Western Kentucky
51 Zombo, Frank LB6-325403/05/19879Central Michigan