|Week 1||Sun 9/9|
|Week 2||Sun 9/16|
|Week 3||Sun 9/23|
|Week 4||Mon 10/1|
|Week 5||Sun 10/7|
|Week 6||Sun 10/14|
|Week 7||Sun 10/21|
|Week 8||Sun 10/28|
|Week 9||Sun 11/4|
|Week 10||Sun 11/11|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Chiefs are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.6% chance of winning it all. On 9/6 they had a 1.9% chance before increasing to 17.4% on 10/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 17.1%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 14.6%. They have an 80.6% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 1/8 to win the division which has an implied probability of 88.9%. Based on the odds, they have a 40% chance of winning the AFC (3/2) and an 18.2% chance of winning it all (9/2). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 31.8% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Chiefs' Championship Forecast Changes
Stream Kansas City games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 9-1 the Chiefs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.2 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 4-1 road record is +30% better than expected. Their 5-0 home record is +26% better. Winners of 4 in a row they have a 29.4% chance of extending that to 7 straight. The Chiefs perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 68% of the time (#2 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 9/1 they won just 51%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #0 winning 58.1%.
They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. Despite being a bottom 10 team in yards per play allowed they are an average team in points allowed per game. They are the #17 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).
TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PERFECT
The forecast for their next 4 games is very good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They have a 17.1 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
FANTASY TEAM LEADERS
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|97||Bailey, Allen||DE||6-3||288||03/25/1989||8||Miami (FL)|
|7||Butker, Harrison||K||6-4||205||07/14/1995||2||Georgia Tech|
|75||Erving, Cameron||G||6-5||313||08/23/1992||4||Florida State|
|72||Fisher, Eric||T||6-7||315||01/05/1991||6||Central Michigan|
|23||Fuller, Kendall||CB||5-11||198||02/13/1995||3||Virginia Tech|
|10||Hill, Tyreek||WR||5-10||185||03/01/1994||3||West Alabama|
|95||Jones, Chris||DE||6-6||310||07/03/1994||3||Mississippi State|
|24||Lucas, Jordan||SS||6-1||190||08/02/1993||3||Penn State|
|15||Mahomes, Patrick||QB||6-3||230||09/17/1995||2||Texas Tech|
|67||Murray, James||C||6-5||304||05/05/1995||0||Holy Cross|
|20||Nelson, Steven||CB||5-11||194||01/22/1993||4||Oregon State|
|91||Nnadi, Derrick||NT||6-1||312||05/09/1996||0||Florida State|
|62||Reiter, Austin||C||6-3||300||11/27/1991||3||South Florida|
|22||Scandrick, Orlando||DB||5-10||196||02/10/1987||11||Boise State|
|39||Smith, Tremon||DB||6-0||190||07/20/1996||0||Central Arkansas|
|57||Speaks, Breeland||OLB||6-3||285||12/18/1995||0||Ole Miss|
|35||Ward, Charvarius||CB||6-1||198||05/16/1996||0||Middle Tennessee|
|98||Williams, Xavier||NT||6-2||309||01/18/1992||4||Northern Iowa|
|77||Wylie, Andrew||G||6-6||309||08/19/1994||1||Eastern Michigan|
|82||Yelder, Deon||TE||6-4||255||03/06/1995||0||Western Kentucky|
|51||Zombo, Frank||LB||6-3||254||03/05/1987||9||Central Michigan|