Los Angeles
Chargers
Stadium StubHub Center
7-3-0 Overall | 2-2 AFC WEST 2nd
TEAM STATSRUSHINGPASSINGPTS/G
Offense123.9286.826.2
Defense112.1259.120.9
Schedule
Regular season
Week 1Sun  9/9
vs
Chiefs
L28-38
Week 2Sun  9/16
@
Bills
W31-20
Week 3Sun  9/23
@
Rams
L23-35
Week 4Sun  9/30
vs
49ers
W29-27
Week 5Sun  10/7
vs
Raiders
W26-10
Week 6Sun  10/14
@
Browns
W38-14
Week 7Sun  10/21
vs
Titans
W20-19
Week 9Sun  11/4
@
Seahawks
W25-17
Week 10Sun  11/11
@
Raiders
W20-6
Week 11Sun  11/18
vs
Broncos
L22-23
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Chargers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of winning it all. On 9/13 they had a 0.6% chance before increasing to 7.7% on 11/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.7%. They have a 6.6% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 17/4 to win the division which has an implied probability of 19%. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the AFC (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 10.6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #11 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 44% #5 Easiest

Chargers' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Chargers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.4 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 4-1 road record is +24% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (2-1, 67%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Chargers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.3% of the time (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 9/14.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MOSTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 4 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have a 11.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
79% ARI
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
52% @PIT
2137 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
74% CIN
--
DEC 13
CLOSE GAME
40% @KC
1364 miles
DEC 22
LIKELY WIN
66% BAL
--
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
61% @DEN
833 miles

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
37 Addae, Jahleel SS5-1019501/24/19906Central Michigan
13 Allen, Keenan WR6-221104/27/19926California
4 Badgley, Mike K5-1018307/28/19950Miami (FL)
72 Barksdale, Joe T6-532601/04/19888LSU
12 Benjamin, Travis WR5-1017512/29/19897Miami (FL)
99 Bosa, Joey DE6-528007/11/19953Ohio State
57 Brown, Jatavis OLB5-1122102/18/19943Akron
80 Culkin, Sean TE6-525506/11/19932Missouri
11 Davis, Geremy WR6-321101/10/19924Connecticut
43 Davis, Michael CB6-219501/06/19952BYU
48 Dzubnar, Nick LB6-124008/15/19914Cal Poly-S.L.O.
30 Ekeler, Austin RB5-1020005/17/19952Western State (Colo.)
51 Emanuel, Kyle OLB6-325008/16/19914North Dakota State
36 Facyson, Brandon DB6-219709/08/19940Virginia Tech
66 Feeney, Dan G6-431005/29/19942Indiana
85 Gates, Antonio TE6-425506/18/198016Kent State
28 Gordon, Melvin RB6-121504/13/19934Wisconsin
88 Green, Virgil TE6-525508/03/19888Nevada
26 Hayward, Casey CB5-1119209/09/19897Vanderbilt
54 Ingram, Melvin DE6-224704/26/19897South Carolina
32 Jackson, Justin RB6-019904/22/19960Northwestern
33 James, Derwin FS6-221508/03/19960Florida State
23 Jenkins, Rayshawn DB6-222001/25/19942Miami (FL)
69 Johnson, Ben T6-524507/28/19940Kansas
58 Johnson, Tre'Von LB6-223202/10/19951Weber State
5 Jones, Donnie P6-222107/05/198015LSU
91 Jones, Justin DT6-330908/28/19960NC State
20 King, Desmond DB5-1020012/14/19942Iowa
77 Lamp, Forrest G6-431002/20/19942Western Kentucky
46 Landrum, Chris DE6-224509/14/19923Jacksonville State
94 Liuget, Corey DT6-230003/18/19908Illinois
92 Mebane, Brandon DT6-131101/15/198512California
38 Newsome, Detrez RB5-1021003/06/19940Western Carolina
42 Nwosu, Uchenna LB6-225112/28/19960USC
76 Okung, Russell T6-531010/07/19879Oklahoma State
31 Phillips, Adrian DB5-1121003/28/19924Texas
93 Philon, Darius DT6-130001/22/19944Arkansas
53 Pouncey, Mike C6-529807/24/19898Florida
50 Pullard, Hayes LB6-023504/18/19924USC
61 Quessenberry, Scott C6-431003/23/19950UCLA
17 Rivers, Philip QB6-522812/08/198115NC State
98 Rochell, Isaac DE6-428004/22/19951Notre Dame
75 Schofield, Michael G6-630111/15/19905Michigan
68 Scott, Trenton T6-532001/25/19940Grambling State
3 Smith, Geno QB6-322110/10/19906West Virginia
71 Square, Damion DE6-229302/06/19896Alabama
69 Tevi, Sam T6-531511/15/19942Utah
64 Toner, Cole T6-530003/13/19942Harvard
34 Watt, Derek FB6-223411/07/19923Wisconsin
81 Williams, Mike WR6-422010/04/19942Clemson
24 Williams, Trevor CB5-1119109/15/19933Penn State
16 Williams, Tyrell WR6-420502/12/19924Western Oregon
47 Windt, Mike LS6-123705/29/19869Cincinnati