LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Chargers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of winning it all. On 9/13 they had a 0.6% chance before increasing to 7.7% on 11/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.7%. They have a 6.6% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 17/4 to win the division which has an implied probability of 19%. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the AFC (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 10.6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #11 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 44% #5 Easiest

Chargers' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Chargers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.4 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 4-1 road record is +24% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (2-1, 67%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Chargers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.3% of the time (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 9/14.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MOSTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 4 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have a 11.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
79% ARI
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
52% @PIT
2137 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
74% CIN
--
DEC 13
CLOSE GAME
40% @KC
1364 miles
DEC 22
LIKELY WIN
66% BAL
--
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
61% @DEN
833 miles

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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.