|Week 1||Sun 9/9|
|Week 2||Sun 9/16|
|Week 3||Sun 9/23|
|Week 4||Sun 9/30|
|Week 5||Sun 10/7|
|Week 6||Sun 10/14|
|Week 7||Sun 10/21|
|Week 9||Sun 11/4|
|Week 10||Sun 11/11|
|Week 11||Sun 11/18|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Chargers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of winning it all. On 9/13 they had a 0.6% chance before increasing to 7.7% on 11/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.7%. They have a 6.6% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 17/4 to win the division which has an implied probability of 19%. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the AFC (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 10.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Chargers' Championship Forecast Changes
Stream Los Angeles games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Chargers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.4 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 4-1 road record is +24% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (2-1, 67%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Chargers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.3% of the time (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 9/14.
They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.
TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MOSTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 4 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have a 11.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
FANTASY TEAM LEADERS
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|37||Addae, Jahleel||SS||5-10||195||01/24/1990||6||Central Michigan|
|4||Badgley, Mike||K||5-10||183||07/28/1995||0||Miami (FL)|
|12||Benjamin, Travis||WR||5-10||175||12/29/1989||7||Miami (FL)|
|99||Bosa, Joey||DE||6-5||280||07/11/1995||3||Ohio State|
|48||Dzubnar, Nick||LB||6-1||240||08/15/1991||4||Cal Poly-S.L.O.|
|30||Ekeler, Austin||RB||5-10||200||05/17/1995||2||Western State (Colo.)|
|51||Emanuel, Kyle||OLB||6-3||250||08/16/1991||4||North Dakota State|
|36||Facyson, Brandon||DB||6-2||197||09/08/1994||0||Virginia Tech|
|85||Gates, Antonio||TE||6-4||255||06/18/1980||16||Kent State|
|54||Ingram, Melvin||DE||6-2||247||04/26/1989||7||South Carolina|
|33||James, Derwin||FS||6-2||215||08/03/1996||0||Florida State|
|23||Jenkins, Rayshawn||DB||6-2||220||01/25/1994||2||Miami (FL)|
|58||Johnson, Tre'Von||LB||6-2||232||02/10/1995||1||Weber State|
|91||Jones, Justin||DT||6-3||309||08/28/1996||0||NC State|
|77||Lamp, Forrest||G||6-4||310||02/20/1994||2||Western Kentucky|
|46||Landrum, Chris||DE||6-2||245||09/14/1992||3||Jacksonville State|
|38||Newsome, Detrez||RB||5-10||210||03/06/1994||0||Western Carolina|
|76||Okung, Russell||T||6-5||310||10/07/1987||9||Oklahoma State|
|17||Rivers, Philip||QB||6-5||228||12/08/1981||15||NC State|
|98||Rochell, Isaac||DE||6-4||280||04/22/1995||1||Notre Dame|
|68||Scott, Trenton||T||6-5||320||01/25/1994||0||Grambling State|
|3||Smith, Geno||QB||6-3||221||10/10/1990||6||West Virginia|
|24||Williams, Trevor||CB||5-11||191||09/15/1993||3||Penn State|
|16||Williams, Tyrell||WR||6-4||205||02/12/1992||4||Western Oregon|