LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Vikings are contenders to win the conference but it is looking less likely to happen. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.9% chance of reaching the Super Bowl. On 9/3 they had a 13.7% chance before dropping to 1.5% on 10/3. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 3.7%. They have a 27.4% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 7/5 to win the division which has an implied probability of 41.7%. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 52% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 9.1% chance of winning the NFC (10/1) and a 4.8% chance of winning it all (20/1). In simulations they win the Super Bowl 1.5% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #11 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #15 Toughest

Vikings' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 5-3-1 the Vikings are behind their money line projected win total of 5.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they only have one good win and one bad loss. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 2-1 road record is +22% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 3-1, 75%. The Vikings are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 10/2.

They are an average team in points per game. Offensively, they are the #11 ranked team in yards per play. They are the #15 ranked team in offensive TD rate [(PassTD + RushTD) / (Pass Att + Rush Att)]. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The Vikings next 4 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They are are the clear underdog in 3 out of the 4 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive. They have a 2.5 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
LIKELY LOSS
38% @CHI
355 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
54% GB
--
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
30% @NE
1116 miles
DEC 10
CLOSE GAME
44% @SEA
1395 miles
DEC 16
LIKELY WIN
65% MIA
--
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
52% @DET
541 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
54% CHI
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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.