New England
Patriots
Stadium Gillette Stadium
7-3-0 Overall | 2-0 AFC EAST 1st
TEAM STATSRUSHINGPASSINGPTS/G
Offense108.5279.828
Defense111.128223.6
Schedule
Regular season
Week 1Sun  9/9
vs
Texans
W27-20
Week 2Sun  9/16
@
Jaguars
L20-31
Week 3Sun  9/23
@
Lions
L10-26
Week 4Sun  9/30
vs
Dolphins
W38-7
Week 5Thu  10/4
vs
Colts
W38-24
Week 6Sun  10/14
vs
Chiefs
W43-40
Week 7Sun  10/21
@
Bears
W38-31
Week 8Mon  10/29
@
Bills
W25-6
Week 9Sun  11/4
vs
Packers
W31-17
Week 10Sun  11/11
@
Titans
L10-34
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PERFECT

The forecast for their next 4 games is very good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 21.6% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
75% @NYJ
170 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
70% MIN
--
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
76% @MIA
1227 miles
DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
60% @PIT
469 miles
DEC 23
LIKELY WIN
86% BUF
--
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
80% NYJ
--

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For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Patriots have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 6.9 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 5-0 home record is +30% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-1, 75%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Patriots playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 67.7% of the time (#3 in the league). Their peak rank was #1 in the league back on 8/10.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Patriots are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 26.9% chance of winning it all. On 8/17 they had a 28.3% chance before dropping to 9.5% on 9/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 16.2%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 98%. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the AFC (7/2) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 29.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #14 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #8 Easiest

Patriots' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
83 Allen, Dwayne TE6-326502/24/19907Clemson
6 Allen, Ryan P6-222002/28/19906Louisiana Tech
60 Andrews, David C6-330007/10/19924Georgia
12 Brady, Tom QB6-422508/03/197719Michigan
90 Brown, Malcom DT6-232002/02/19944Texas
77 Brown, Trent T6-838004/13/19934Florida
70 Butler, Adam DT6-530004/12/19942Vanderbilt
61 Cannon, Marcus T6-633505/06/19888TCU
49 Cardona, Joe LS6-324504/16/19924Navy
23 Chung, Patrick SS5-1121508/19/198710Oregon
94 Clayborn, Adrian DE6-328007/06/19888Iowa
82 Darboh, Amara WR6-221502/01/19942Michigan
58 Davis, Keionta DE6-428003/01/19941Tennessee-Chattanooga
29 Dawson, Duke DB5-1019810/13/19950Florida
46 Develin, James FB6-325507/23/19886Brown
13 Dorsett, Phillip WR5-1019201/05/19934Miami (FL)
43 Ebner, Nate DB6-021512/14/19887Ohio State
11 Edelman, Julian WR5-1019805/22/198610Kent State
66 Ferentz, James C6-230006/05/19893Iowa
98 Flowers, Trey DE6-226508/16/19934Arkansas
24 Gilmore, Stephon CB6-120209/19/19907South Carolina
10 Gordon, Josh WR6-322504/13/19913Utah
3 Gostkowski, Stephen K6-121501/28/198413Memphis
87 Gronkowski, Rob TE6-626805/14/19899Arizona
93 Guy, Lawrence DT6-431503/17/19908Arizona State
21 Harmon, Duron SS6-120501/24/19916Rutgers
54 Hightower, Dont'a OLB6-326003/12/19907Alabama
15 Hogan, Chris WR6-121010/24/19886Monmouth (N.J.)
47 Hollister, Jacob TE6-424511/18/19932Wyoming
2 Hoyer, Brian QB6-221610/13/198510Michigan State
50 Humber, Ramon LB5-1123208/10/198710North Dakota State
27 Jackson, J.C. DB6-119811/17/19950Maryland
31 Jones, Jonathan DB5-1019009/20/19933Auburn
75 Karras, Ted G6-430503/15/19933Illinois
36 King, Brandon LB6-222006/08/19934Auburn
--- Lucien, Devin WR6-220006/26/19931Arizona State
69 Mason, Shaq G6-131008/28/19934Georgia Tech
59 McClellan, Albert LB6-223506/04/19868Marshall
32 McCourty, Devin FS5-1019508/13/19879Rutgers
30 McCourty, Jason CB5-1119508/13/198710Rutgers
22 Melifonwu, Obi DB6-422404/05/19942Connecticut
26 Michel, Sony RB5-1121502/17/19950Georgia
84 Patterson, Cordarrelle WR6-222803/17/19916Tennessee
95 Rivers, Derek DE6-525005/09/19942Youngstown State
52 Roberts, Elandon OLB6-023804/22/19943Houston
71 Shelton, Danny DT6-234508/20/19934Washington
51 Simon, John OLB6-226010/14/19906Ohio State
18 Slater, Matthew WR6-020509/09/198511UCLA
62 Thuney, Joe G6-530811/18/19923NC State
53 Van Noy, Kyle MLB6-325003/26/19915BYU
68 Waddle, LaAdrian T6-631507/21/19916Texas Tech
28 White, James RB5-1020502/03/19925Wisconsin
91 Wise, Deatrich DE6-527507/26/19942Arkansas