NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PERFECT

The forecast for their next 4 games is very good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 21.6% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
75% @NYJ
170 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
70% MIN
--
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
76% @MIA
1227 miles
DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
60% @PIT
469 miles
DEC 23
LIKELY WIN
86% BUF
--
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
80% NYJ
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 7-3 the Patriots have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 6.9 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 5-0 home record is +30% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-1, 75%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Patriots playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 67.7% of the time (#3 in the league). Their peak rank was #1 in the league back on 8/10.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Patriots are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 26.9% chance of winning it all. On 8/17 they had a 28.3% chance before dropping to 9.5% on 9/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 16.2%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 98%. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the AFC (7/2) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 29.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #14 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #8 Easiest

Patriots' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.