|Week 1||Sun 9/9|
|Week 2||Sun 9/16|
|Week 3||Sun 9/23|
|W / OT43-37|
|Week 4||Sun 9/30|
|Week 5||Mon 10/8|
|Week 7||Sun 10/21|
|Week 8||Sun 10/28|
|Week 9||Sun 11/4|
|Week 10||Sun 11/11|
|Week 11||Sun 11/18|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Saints are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.5% chance of winning it all. On 9/21 they had a 1.4% chance before increasing to 21.8% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 21.6%. Before the start of their 8 game winning streak they were at 1.9%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 95.2%. Oddsmakers have them at 1/10 which has an implied probability of 90.9%. Based on the odds, they have a 41.7% chance of winning the NFC (7/5) and a 26.7% chance of winning it all (11/4). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 38.9% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Saints' Championship Forecast Changes
Stream New Orleans games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 8-1 the Saints are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 5.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins and one bad loss. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 5-0 road record is +44% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 8 in a row they have a 29.6% chance of extending that to 11 straight. We have simulated the Saints playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 69.2% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #12 in the league back on 9/18.
They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.
TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PERFECT
The forecast for their next 4 games is very good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They have a 24.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
FANTASY TEAM LEADERS
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|25||Apple, Eli||CB||6-1||203||08/09/1995||3||Ohio State|
|72||Armstead, Terron||T||6-5||304||07/23/1991||6||Arkansas-Pine Bluff|
|24||Bell, Vonn||SS||5-11||205||12/12/1994||3||Ohio State|
|29||Coleman, Kurt||SS||5-11||208||04/01/1988||9||Ohio State|
|92||Davenport, Marcus||DE||6-6||265||09/04/1996||0||Texas-San Antonio|
|56||Davis, Demario||OLB||6-2||248||01/11/1989||7||Arkansas State|
|95||Davison, Tyeler||DT||6-2||309||09/03/1992||4||Fresno State|
|91||Hendrickson, Trey||DE||6-4||270||12/05/1994||2||Florida Atlantic|
|89||Hill, Josh||TE||6-5||250||05/21/1990||6||Idaho State|
|53||Klein, A.J.||OLB||6-1||240||07/30/1991||6||Iowa State|
|23||Lattimore, Marshon||CB||6-0||192||05/20/1996||2||Ohio State|
|3||Lutz, Wil||K||5-11||184||07/07/1994||3||Georgia State|
|93||Onyemata, David||DT||6-4||300||11/13/1992||3||Manitoba (Canada)|
|52||Robertson, Craig||LB||6-1||234||02/11/1988||6||North Texas|
|76||Stallworth, Taylor||DT||6-2||305||08/18/1995||0||South Carolina|
|51||Te'o, Manti||MLB||6-1||241||01/26/1991||6||Notre Dame|
|13||Thomas, Michael||WR||6-3||212||03/03/1993||3||Ohio State|
|63||Tom, Cameron||C||6-4||300||06/21/1995||2||Southern Miss|
|26||Williams, P.J.||CB||6-0||196||06/01/1993||4||Florida State|