LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Steelers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 6.3% chance of winning it all. On 9/3 they had an 8.2% chance before dropping to 0.9% on 10/5 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 7.1%. They have an 88.3% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 1/2 to win the division which has an implied probability of 66.7%. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the AFC (5/2) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the Super Bowl 14% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #6 Easiest

Steelers' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 6-2-1 the Steelers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 5.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 3-0 road record is +48% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 5 in a row they have a 17.5% chance of extending that to 8 straight. The Steelers perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 64.9% of the time (#5 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 10/2 they were at 57.1%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #0 winning 60.3%.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MOSTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 4 games is generally good. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They win four games in 14.7% of simulations.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
LIKELY WIN
61% @JAC
706 miles
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
61% @DEN
1320 miles
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
47% LAC
--
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
85% @OAK
2251 miles
DEC 16
LIKELY LOSS
39% NE
--
DEC 23
CLOSE GAME
41% @NO
921 miles
DEC 30
LIKELY WIN
74% CIN
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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.