2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The 49ers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. But at 4 wins, it is not hard to improve. Their odds (25/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 3.8%. Their simulation based probability is 0.6%. Their odds (12/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 7.7%. Their simulation based probability is 1.7%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 6.2 wins. Their 4 actual wins was below expectation. Their struggles were primarily on the road. They were OK at home. Their 50% home win percentage was as expected (46.7%). They won 0% on the road which was much worse than expected (30.4%). Anyone who backed the 49ers in all of their games on the money line would be down -800 units. Against the spread, they have lost -710 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-11 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE: