SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to help the 49ers improve from 21 point per game to that 24.5 - 25 point range. Their emphasis on defense in the draft helps them improve to 7.6 wins per simulation.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

If the 49ers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Improvement on 4 wins is somewhat expected. Their odds to win the conference are just 20/1, 4.8% and to win the Super Bowl are 40/1, 2.4%. Their simulation based chances to win the conference are 1.8% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.5 percent.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 6.2 wins. Their 4 actual wins was below expectation. Their struggles were primarily on the road. They were OK at home. Their 50% home win percentage was as expected (46.7%). They won 0% on the road which was much worse than expected (30.4%). Anyone who backed the 49ers in all of their games on the money line would be down -800 units. Against the spread, they have lost -710 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-11 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE: