SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 2-8 49ers 'should have' 4 wins. They have 3 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 0-5 road record is -32% lower than expected. Their 2-3 home record is -12% lower. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 1-2, 33%. In simulations where the 49ers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 41.3% of the time (#25 in the league). They have moved up from #31 in the league back on 9/25.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The 49ers next 4 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They are are the clear underdog in 4 out of the 4 games. They have a 1.6 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
41% @TB
2369 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
30% @SEA
705 miles
DEC 9
CLOSE GAME
43% DEN
--
DEC 16
LIKELY LOSS
30% SEA
--
DEC 23
LIKELY LOSS
36% CHI
--
DEC 30
LIKELY LOSS
23% @LAR
313 miles

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the 49ers were projected to win 8.3 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 8/17 their projected win total was up to 8.2 before dropping to 3.3 on 10/28. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 4.1 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 54% #7 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #12 Toughest

49ers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.