SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 3-6 the Buccaneers are behind their money line projected win total of 3.9 wins. They have 3 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 1-4 road record is -14% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 21.8% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Buccaneers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 41.2% of the time (#26 in the league). Their peak rank was #10 in the league back on 9/24.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game and a below average defensive TD rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The Buccaneers next 4 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have a 2.4 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
48% @NYG
1009 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
58% SF
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
45% CAR
--
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
19% NO
--
DEC 16
LIKELY LOSS
26% @BAL
851 miles
DEC 23
LIKELY LOSS
31% @DAL
930 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
41% ATL
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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Buccaneers were projected to win 6.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 9/23 their projected win total was up to 8.2 before dropping to 5.7 on 11/13. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 5.7 wins. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were projected for 7.3 wins. The playoffs are not likely with their 0.9% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NFC at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 39% #2 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 64% #3 Toughest

Buccaneers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.