NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The forecast for their next 4 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have an 7.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
LIKELY LOSS
39% @IND
251 miles
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
46% @HOU
672 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
71% NYJ
--
DEC 6
LIKELY WIN
62% JAC
--
DEC 16
LIKELY WIN
65% @NYG
758 miles
DEC 22
CLOSE GAME
56% WAS
--
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
52% IND
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 5-4 the Titans are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 3.5 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 3-1 home record is +37% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 2-1 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 0.9 wins. The Titans should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). They have moved up from #21 in the league back on 10/15.

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an elite scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Titans are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.3% chance of reaching the Super Bowl. On 9/28 they had a 4.8% chance before dropping to 0.7% on 11/4 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.8%. They have a 35.7% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 9/2 to win the division which has an implied probability of 18.2%. They are projected to finish #6 in the conference and have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AFC at 3.8% (25/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1). In simulations they win the Super Bowl 1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 41% #6 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #7 Toughest

Titans' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.