LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Redskins are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.2% chance of reaching the Super Bowl. On 8/17 they had a 0.7% chance before increasing to 6.6% on 11/2. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.7%. They have a 70.5% chance of winning their division. Oddsmakers have them at 4/5 to win the division which has an implied probability of 55.6%. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 79% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NFC at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1). In simulations they win the Super Bowl 1.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 54% #7 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 28% #-1 Easiest

Redskins' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 6-3 the Redskins are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 4.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 3-1 road record is +33% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-1, 75%) is better than their expected 48% win percentage. In simulations, the Redskins are a below average team and won 49.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). Their peak rank was #16 in the league back on 10/29.

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

TEAM DEFENSE:

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: MIX

The forecast for their next 4 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. They have a 5.7 percent chance of winning four over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
46% HOU
--
NOV 22
CLOSE GAME
41% @DAL
1209 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY LOSS
39% @PHI
114 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY WIN
65% NYG
--
DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
48% @JAC
653 miles
DEC 22
CLOSE GAME
44% @TEN
575 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
49% PHI
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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.