headshot
John
Brown
College Pittsburg State
Team Buffalo Bills
15WR
5'11"Height
178Weight
29Age
6Exp
6Bye
John Brown's Fantasy Scouting Report

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

The word out of Bills’ camp is Free Agent acquisition John Brown has been impressive and looks like the favorite to be the #1 receiver in Buffalo. The Bills’ WR room, as a whole, looks much stronger this season than last with the offseason additions of John Brown and Cole Beasley and the emergence of Robert Foster. Brown, who had a 1,000 yards season in Arizona in 2015, had 586 yards in the first 8 games of last season before finishing with just 129 over the final 8 games. The switch at QB from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson was a big reason for the decline in production. SportsLine projects John Brown to finish with 41 receptions for 671 yards and 5 TDs in 2019. If the reports out of training camp are any indication, Brown should be able to surpass these numbers. I would value Brown as a low-end #2 receiver in fantasy right now.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK

You can expect John Brown to be a good bench player who will start in certain weeks the rest of the season. His 107 projected fantasy points puts him at #51 behind Zay Jones and ahead of Anthony Miller. He has averaged 6.37 fantasy points in his past 16 games, which is slightly less than our projected per game average. His projected per game average is 6.7 fantasy points. His rank based on average projected points is the same as his rank based on total fantasy points. He is less valuable in PPR leagues where he is the #57 ranked wide receiver. He is slightly underrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 58%, he is the #52 most highly owned wide receiver. John Brown is expected to come up short of last season's #39 fantasy position rank.

JOHN BROWN WEEK 1 AND 2 FANTASY OUTLOOK

John Brown is projected for 6.7 fantasy points which is good enough to be the #47 ranked wide receiver and a starter for most owners. This is a typical week for him with a FP projection that is the same as his projected per game average over the rest of the season. He is ranked above Nelson Agholor but behind Donte Moncrief. Week 2 will not be as good based on projected rank (#56). He is projected for 6.2 fantasy points.

JOHN BROWN IS A BAD DFS VALUE ON FANDUEL AT $5.5K AND DRAFTKINGS AT $4.3K

He is projected for 8.1 FanDuel points and 9.9 points on DraftKings. Based on the player pool average points per dollar he is coming up -$517 short of $5.5K on FanDuel and -$219 short of $4.3K on DraftKings. There should be much better options (see below). Barring a significant lineup change consider him a daily fantasy player to fade. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.

FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS

The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Below the projection are actual stats from last season.

Career Stats
YEARTEAMGGSRECYDSAVGLGTD20+40+1ST
2019BUF13136490814.1940514148
2018BAL16154271517.0271511428
2017ARI1052129914.245232115
2016ARI1563951713.263025028
2015ARI151165100315.4368711649
2014ARI1654869614.5075511231
Career (6 Seasons)8555279413814.8375275414199
YEARTEAMGGSATTYDSAVGLGTD1ST
2019BUF1313144.00400
2018BAL1615341.33300
2017ARI10511010.001001
2016ARI15611010.001001
2015ARI15113227.331301
2014ARI1653-6-2.00200
Career (6 Seasons)855512443.671303
2019 Situational Stats
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
DECEMBER GAMES13268.700133.300
NOVEMBER GAMES52335515.4331773.961
OCTOBER GAMES31521214.111128040
SEPTEMBER GAMES42331513.7111878.340
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
OTHER DAYS (NON MON/SUN)13268.700133.300
SUNDAY GAMES126188214.5554777141
THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES13268.700133.300
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
WINS94668214.8553576.1121
LOSSES41822612.6001372.220
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
HOME GAMES72839814.2221967.980
ROAD GAMES63651014.2332980.661
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
AT&T Stadium13268.700133.300
FirstEnergy Stadium157715.400510010
Hard Rock Stadium1913715.222666.721
MetLife Stadium21419513.9111285.720
New Era Field72839814.2221967.980
Nissan Stadium15751500510010
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
vs Baltimore Ravens13268.700133.300
vs Cincinnati Bengals145112.80037510
vs Cleveland Browns157715.400510010
vs Dallas Cowboys13268.700133.300
vs Denver Broncos123919.511210010
vs Miami Dolphins21422015.733964.351
vs New England Patriots156913.80036010
vs New York Giants177210.300571.400
vs New York Jets1712317.611710020
vs Philadelphia Eagles155410.80048000
vs Tennessee Titans15751500510010
vs Washington Redskins1476190037520
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
BRISK (41-60 DEGREES)62532813.100176840
COLD WEATHER <= 40123919.511210010
HOT WEATHER >= 80145112.80037510
WARM (61-79 DEGREES)53349014.8442678.881
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
OUTDOOR GAMES136490814.2554875141
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
ON ARTIFICIAL SURFACES104561913.8333271.1100
ON GRASS FIELDS31928915.2221684.241
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
MARGIN 0-762942114.5112482.860
MARGIN 15+42030615.333157551
MARGIN 8-1431518112.11196030
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
FIRST HALF SEASON84260314.4223378.6100
SECOND HALF SEASON52230513.9331568.241
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
OUTSIDE OWN DIVISION93849613.1112976.360
VS OWN DIVISION42641215.8441973.181
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
VS AFC TEAMS94568015.1553577.8121
VS NFC TEAMS41922812001368.420
CATEGORYGRECYDSAVGLGTD1ST1ST%20+40+
FOURTH QUARTER WITHIN 701018618.62288050
LAST TWO MINUTES OF HALF079313.300571.420
FOURTH DOWN000---000---00
FIRST DOWN02838913.9332278.641
BEHIND BY 1-TO-8 POINTS057615.200510000
BEHIND BY 9-TO-16 POINTS02433013.8221666.760
OPP 19-1 - BY YARD LINE04348.51125000
OPP 49-20 - BY YARD LINE02338516.7441982.681
THIRD DOWN01830817.1111583.370
TIED01216113.4001210020
SECOND DOWN01821111.7111161.130
OWN 21-50 - BY YARD LINE02834812.400217540
OVERTIME000---000---00
OWN 1-20 - BY YARD LINE0914115.700666.720
BEHIND02940614222172.460
ATTEMPTS 31+000---000---00
3RD QUARTER01111610.500654.500
4TH QUARTER01831317.4441477.870
2ND QUARTER01929015.3111578.951
2ND HALF02942914.844206970
1ST HALF03547913.711288071
1ST QUARTER01618911.8001381.320
AHEAD02334114.8331565.261
AHEAD BY 1-TO-8 POINTS01020320.31199051
ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20000---000---00
ATTEMPTS 21-THROUGH-30000---000---00
ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10000---000---00
AS STARTER000---000---00
AHEAD BY 9-TO-16 POINTS01313810.622646.210
OVERALL136490814.2554875141
2019 Game Log
WKDATEOPPRESULTTARRECPTREYDREAVGRELGRETDRUATTRUYDRUAVGRULGRUTDFL
109/08@NYJW17-1610712317.57381000000
209/15@NYGW28-14877210.29170000000
309/22CINW21-17545112.75270144.00400
409/29NEL16-101156913.80280000000
510/06@TENW14-7557515.00210000000
710/20MIAW31-21658316.60241000000
810/27PHIL31-13855410.80190000000
911/03WASW24-9747619.00250000000
1011/10@CLEL19-161157715.40210000000
1111/17@MIAW37-2014913715.22402000000
1211/24DENW20-3423919.50341000000
1311/28@DALW26-1543268.67140000000
1412/08BALL24-1783268.67180000000
* Indicates player did not play that week