SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

The word out of Bills’ camp is Free Agent acquisition John Brown has been impressive and looks like the favorite to be the #1 receiver in Buffalo. The Bills’ WR room, as a whole, looks much stronger this season than last with the offseason additions of John Brown and Cole Beasley and the emergence of Robert Foster. Brown, who had a 1,000 yards season in Arizona in 2015, had 586 yards in the first 8 games of last season before finishing with just 129 over the final 8 games. The switch at QB from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson was a big reason for the decline in production. SportsLine projects John Brown to finish with 41 receptions for 671 yards and 5 TDs in 2019. If the reports out of training camp are any indication, Brown should be able to surpass these numbers. I would value Brown as a low-end #2 receiver in fantasy right now.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK

You can expect John Brown to be a good bench player who will start in certain weeks the rest of the season. His 107 projected fantasy points puts him at #51 behind Zay Jones and ahead of Anthony Miller. He has averaged 6.37 fantasy points in his past 16 games, which is slightly less than our projected per game average. His projected per game average is 6.7 fantasy points. His rank based on average projected points is the same as his rank based on total fantasy points. He is less valuable in PPR leagues where he is the #57 ranked wide receiver. He is slightly underrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 58%, he is the #52 most highly owned wide receiver. John Brown is expected to come up short of last season's #39 fantasy position rank.

JOHN BROWN WEEK 1 AND 2 FANTASY OUTLOOK

John Brown is projected for 6.7 fantasy points which is good enough to be the #47 ranked wide receiver and a starter for most owners. This is a typical week for him with a FP projection that is the same as his projected per game average over the rest of the season. He is ranked above Nelson Agholor but behind Donte Moncrief. Week 2 will not be as good based on projected rank (#56). He is projected for 6.2 fantasy points.

JOHN BROWN IS A BAD DFS VALUE ON FANDUEL AT $5.5K AND DRAFTKINGS AT $4.3K

He is projected for 8.1 FanDuel points and 9.9 points on DraftKings. Based on the player pool average points per dollar he is coming up -$517 short of $5.5K on FanDuel and -$219 short of $4.3K on DraftKings. There should be much better options (see below). Barring a significant lineup change consider him a daily fantasy player to fade. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.

FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS

The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Below the projection are actual stats from last season.