Stefon Diggs: A Young Player on the Rise

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

2018 FANTASY RECAP AND 2019 FANTASY PROJECTION

Stefon Diggs was the #61 ranked fantasy player this season and the #13 WR. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (15). Based on average fantasy points he is the #17 WR. He peaked early in the season. He averaged 13 FPs in his first 4 games and 8.5 FP in his final 5 games. His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.59 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Diggs when he 'goes off' is 27 fantasy points (his average is 11FPs). Stefon Diggs (2019 Season Projection: 100 Rec, 1092 Yards, 7.8 TDs, 52 Rushyd) is projected to deliver comparable fantasy value in 2019 where his projection based rank has him as the #13 player at his position.

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UPWARD STATISTICAL CAREER TREND

As a young player he has improved year-to-year. His average Fantasy points have increased by 29% over this time frame.

SEASON TREND201820172016
Fantasy Points165136110
FP Average119.78.5
Regular Season GP151413

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

Stefon Diggs played in 15 games in 2018. He was the #12 ranked fantasy WR based on total fantasy points. He averaged 11 FP per game (#16 ranked based on average). He is trending down based on lower per game fantasy ranking from 2017 to 2018. He is relatively stronger (stats bolded below) than weaker in more categories.

2017-2018FPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (29 Games)2981661870172437500
WR Rank#12#11#16#5#12#14#251#1
Average Stats10.35.764.50.598.42.600
WR Rank (Averages)#14#11#17#7#14#20#1#1
2018 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (15 Games)164102102191486200
WR Rank#12#8#17#8#7#12#227#1
Average Stats116.868.10.69.94.100
WR Rank (Averages)#16#8#22#10#7#16#1#1
2017 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (14 Games)134648498951300
WR Rank#17#22#23#7#32#30#183#1
Average Stats9.64.660.60.576.80.900
WR Rank (Averages)#11#21#23#7#34#36#1#1

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 14.3 FD points and 18.5 DK points per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 5.7 and on FanDuel it was 3.7 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 34.6 and 25.1 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All14.3 ($7.7K)5 G, 6 B18.5 ($7.2K)5 G, 7 B
12/30 CHI14.7--18.7--
12/23 @DET8 ($7.3K)-6.39 ($7.4K)-9.5
12/16 MIA13.8 ($7.7K)--15.8 ($7.6K)--
12/10 @SEA10.1 ($7.7K)-4.212.1 ($7.3K)-6.4
12/2 @NE7.4 ($7.7K)-6.99.9 ($7.6K)-8.6
11/25 GB18.9 ($7.3K)+4.622.9 ($7.6K)+4.4
11/18 @CHI25.1 ($7.3K)+10.834.6 ($6.9K)+16.1
10/28 NO22.9 ($7.6K)+8.630.9 ($7.2K)+12.4
10/21 @NYJ6.6 ($7.6K)-7.710.6 ($7.2K)-7.9
10/14 ARI5.7 ($8.2K)-8.67.2 ($7.6K)-11.3
10/7 @PHI16.6 ($8.2K)--21.6 ($7K)--
9/27 @LAR17.8 ($8.3K)+3.526.3 ($6.1K)+7.8
9/23 BUF3.7 ($8.3K)-10.65.7 ($7.7K)-12.8
9/16 @GB31.4 ($7.4K)+17.138.9 ($6.9K)+20.4
9/9 SF12.6 ($7.4K)--14.1 ($6.3K)-4.4