Pittsburgh Steelers Have a 2.2% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Steelers 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds (20/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 4.8%. Their simulation based probability is 2.2%. They have a a 2.2 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 10/1, 9.1%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went as expected. They won 9 games vs an expected win total of 9.6. They went 4-4 on the road and were expected to win 4.4. They won 5 at home and were expected to win 5.2. Anyone who backed the Steelers in all of their games on the money line would be down -37 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +30 profit risking 110 to win 100 (8-7 ATS). The Steelers have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a top 10 team based on yards per play allowed but only an average team in points allowed. They are the #18 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games26.8 - 22.59-7, -378-7, +308-8 50% Over
On Road23.5 - 22.54-4, -504-3, +703-5 62.5% Under
At Home30.0 - 22.55-3, -404-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CIN16-13Win +13ATS Loss -14Under 45
12/23 @NO28-31Loss -100Covered +6.5Over 53
12/16 NE17-10Win +120Covered +2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @OAK21-24Loss -100ATS Loss -10Under 51
12/2 LAC30-33Loss -100ATS Loss -3Over 53
11/25 @DEN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 47.5
11/18 @JAC20-16Win +45ATS Push -4Under 47
11/8 CAR52-21Win +50Covered -3.5Over 51
11/4 @BAL23-16Win +105Covered +1.5Under 47
10/28 CLE33-18Win +23Covered -8.5Over 47.5
10/14 @CIN28-21Win +100Covered +1.5Under 49.5
10/7 ATL41-17Win +54Covered -3.5Over 57
9/30 BAL14-26Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 51
9/24 @TB30-27Win +100Covered +1Over 55
9/16 KC37-42Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 52.5
9/9 @CLE21-21Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 41

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.8 (#6)4.9% (#7)6.4 (#4)323 (#2)7.5 (#13)90 (#31)4.2 (#24)1.6 (#26)
On the Road23.5 (#12)4.3% (#16)6.5 (#2)352 (#1)7.7 (#9)84 (#30)4.0 (#27)2.1 (#29)
At Home30.0 (#5)5.6% (#4)6.3 (#12)295 (#9)7.3 (#18)97 (#28)4.4 (#15)1.1 (#12)
Last 4 Games20.5 (#21)3.6% (#22)6.2 (#9)302 (#4)7.2 (#12)82 (#29)4.0 (#19)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.5 (#16)4.3% (#18)6.0 (#8)253 (#14)7.1 (#11)96 (#6)4.2 (#9)0.9 (#29)
Road Games22.5 (#11)4.3% (#19)5.8 (#7)250 (#13)6.9 (#6)97 (#7)4.0 (#7)1.0 (#22)
Home Games22.5 (#21)4.2% (#21)6.2 (#12)255 (#18)7.4 (#18)95 (#7)4.3 (#14)0.9 (#28)
Last 4 Games19.5 (#10)3.7% (#14)6.3 (#12)256 (#22)7.6 (#28)83 (#6)4.1 (#18)0.8 (#25)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games26.8 - 22.59-7, -378-7, +308-8 50% Over
On Road23.5 - 22.54-4, -504-3, +703-5 62.5% Under
At Home30.0 - 22.55-3, -404-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CIN16-13Win +13ATS Loss -14Under 45
12/23 @NO28-31Loss -100Covered +6.5Over 53
12/16 NE17-10Win +120Covered +2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @OAK21-24Loss -100ATS Loss -10Under 51
12/2 LAC30-33Loss -100ATS Loss -3Over 53
11/25 @DEN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 47.5
11/18 @JAC20-16Win +45ATS Push -4Under 47
11/8 CAR52-21Win +50Covered -3.5Over 51
11/4 @BAL23-16Win +105Covered +1.5Under 47
10/28 CLE33-18Win +23Covered -8.5Over 47.5
10/14 @CIN28-21Win +100Covered +1.5Under 49.5
10/7 ATL41-17Win +54Covered -3.5Over 57
9/30 BAL14-26Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 51
9/24 @TB30-27Win +100Covered +1Over 55
9/16 KC37-42Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 52.5
9/9 @CLE21-21Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 41