Tampa Bay Buccaneers Have a 0.1% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Buccaneers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. At 100/1, 1% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.1 percent.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 6.3 wins. Their 5 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 1-7 on the road and were expected to win 2.6. Their 50% home win percentage was as expected (46.7%). Anyone who backed the Buccaneers in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +20 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS). Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game and a below average defensive TD rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games24.8 - 29.05-11, +207-7, -709-7 56.2% Over
On Road27.0 - 35.81-7, -3253-3, -306-2 75% Over
At Home22.5 - 22.24-4, +204-4, -403-5 62.5% Under
12/30 ATL32-34Loss -100Covered +2.5Over 51.5
12/23 @DAL20-27Loss -100ATS Push +7Under 48
12/16 @BAL12-20Loss -100Covered +8.5Under 44.5
12/9 NO14-28Loss -100ATS Loss +9.5Under 54.5
12/2 CAR24-17Win +160Covered +3.5Under 52
11/25 SF27-9Win +77Covered -2Under 54.5
11/18 @NYG35-38Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 54
11/11 WAS3-16Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Under 51
11/4 @CAR28-42Loss -100ATS Loss +6Over 55.5
10/28 @CIN34-37Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 55
10/21 CLE26-23Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Under 52.5
10/14 @ATL29-34Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 57.5
9/30 @CHI10-48Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 46
9/24 PIT27-30Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 55
9/16 PHI27-21Win +130Covered +3Over 46.5
9/9 @NO48-40Win +375Covered +10Over 49.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.8 (#12)4.6% (#9)6.8 (#3)335 (#1)8.6 (#2)95 (#29)3.9 (#31)2.2 (#32)
On the Road27.0 (#5)5.0% (#5)6.9 (#3)332 (#3)8.6 (#2)100 (#20)4.1 (#22)2.2 (#30)
At Home22.5 (#20)4.3% (#15)6.7 (#3)338 (#2)8.5 (#5)90 (#30)3.7 (#32)2.1 (#31)
Last 4 Games19.5 (#23)3.8% (#18)6.0 (#17)263 (#12)7.2 (#13)86 (#26)3.9 (#20)1.2 (#10)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games29.0 (#31)5.5% (#32)6.6 (#26)274 (#26)8.2 (#32)124 (#24)4.7 (#20)1.1 (#22)
Road Games35.8 (#32)7.1% (#32)7.0 (#25)275 (#24)9.3 (#32)132 (#25)4.6 (#21)0.5 (#29)
Home Games22.2 (#20)4.0% (#18)6.3 (#23)273 (#27)7.4 (#17)116 (#18)4.7 (#22)1.6 (#12)
Last 4 Games27.2 (#28)4.3% (#22)5.5 (#17)219 (#12)7.1 (#20)133 (#23)4.0 (#11)1.2 (#16)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games24.8 - 29.05-11, +207-7, -709-7 56.2% Over
On Road27.0 - 35.81-7, -3253-3, -306-2 75% Over
At Home22.5 - 22.24-4, +204-4, -403-5 62.5% Under
12/30 ATL32-34Loss -100Covered +2.5Over 51.5
12/23 @DAL20-27Loss -100ATS Push +7Under 48
12/16 @BAL12-20Loss -100Covered +8.5Under 44.5
12/9 NO14-28Loss -100ATS Loss +9.5Under 54.5
12/2 CAR24-17Win +160Covered +3.5Under 52
11/25 SF27-9Win +77Covered -2Under 54.5
11/18 @NYG35-38Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 54
11/11 WAS3-16Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Under 51
11/4 @CAR28-42Loss -100ATS Loss +6Over 55.5
10/28 @CIN34-37Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 55
10/21 CLE26-23Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Under 52.5
10/14 @ATL29-34Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 57.5
9/30 @CHI10-48Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 46
9/24 PIT27-30Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 55
9/16 PHI27-21Win +130Covered +3Over 46.5
9/9 @NO48-40Win +375Covered +10Over 49.5