Aaron Rodgers is Projected to Have a Better Fantasy Season in 2019

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

2018 FANTASY RECAP AND POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR 2019

Aaron Rodgers had a good fantasy season and was a 'second tier' fantasy star. He was the #9 ranked fantasy player this season. Even though he missed a few games, he played enough to make his overall fantasy rank better than what it is based on average fantasy points where he is the #11 QB. He peaked early in the season. He averaged 24.5 FPs in his first 5 games and 19.1 FP in his final 6 games. A fast start and slow end is somewhat expected given his age. His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.45 which is close to the league ratio. He averaged 22.4 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 47 fantasy points. Aaron Rodgers (2019 Season Projection: 4399 Yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs, 275 Rushyd) is projected to improve in the upcoming season. His rank based on total projected fantasy points has him as the #2 player at his position.

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CURRENT CAREER TREND AND STATISTICS

His FP average has dropped by -20 percent from two seasons ago.

SEASON TREND201820172016
Fantasy Points359162418
FP Average22.423.127.9
Regular Season GP16715

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

He was the #9 ranked fantasy QB based on total fantasy points. He averaged 22.4 FP per game (#11 ranked based on average). He is relatively weaker than stronger in more categories. The strengths are bolded below.

2017-2018FPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (23 Games)520526/835, 63%61174183952
QB Rank#16#38#19#16#12#14#21
Average Stats22.622.9/36.3, 63%2661.80.317.20.1
QB Rank (Averages)#7#38#12#12#5#19#32
2018 SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (16 Games)359372/597, 62.3%44422522692
QB Rank#9#34#6#13#1#12#10
Average Stats22.423.2/37.3, 62.3%2781.60.116.80.1
QB Rank (Averages)#11#34#10#23#1#17#19
2017 SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (7 Games)162154/238, 64.7%16751661260
QB Rank#27#14#30#23#10#20#66
Average Stats23.122/34, 64.7%2392.30.9180
QB Rank (Averages)#5#14#16#3#26#15#1

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 20.3 FD points and 21.2 DK points per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 11.9 and on FanDuel it was 11.9 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 31.4 and 28.4 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All20.3 ($8.4K)3 G, 6 B21.2 ($6.3K)3 G, 6 B
12/30 DET1--1--
12/23 @NYJ42.9 ($8K)+22.645.9 ($6.3K)+24.7
12/16 @CHI12.5 ($8.1K)-7.812.5 ($5.7K)-8.7
12/9 ATL20.2 ($8.1K)--20.2 ($6K)--
12/2 ARI15.3 ($8.3K)-515.3 ($6.2K)-5.9
11/25 @MIN11.9 ($8.6K)-8.411.9 ($5.8K)-9.3
11/15 @SEA21.6 ($8.6K)--24.6 ($5.9K)--
11/11 MIA18.1 ($8.6K)--18.1 ($6.4K)--
11/4 @NE19.2 ($8.6K)--19.2 ($6.4K)--
10/28 @LAR15.9 ($8.6K)-4.415.9 ($6.4K)-5.3
10/15 SF28.4 ($8.4K)+8.131.4 ($6.6K)+10.2
10/7 @DET26.7 ($8.4K)+6.429.7 ($6.3K)+8.5
9/30 BUF16 ($8.5K)-4.316 ($6.8K)-5.2
9/23 @WAS19.9 ($8.8K)--19.9 ($7.1K)--
9/16 MIN16 ($8.7K)-4.316 ($6.8K)-5.2
9/9 CHI24.9--24.9--