Zach Ertz Was the #3 Fantasy TE

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

2018 FANTASY RECAP AND 2019 FANTASY PROJECTION

Zach Ertz was the #64 ranked fantasy player this season and the #3 TE. He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 5 games he averaged 12.1 fantasy points which was higher than his start (9.9 FP) and his ending average (9 FP). His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.69 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Ertz when he 'goes off' is 26 fantasy points (his average is 10.3FPs). Zach Ertz (2019 Season Projection: 104 Rec, 1078 Yards, 7.4 TDs) is projected to deliver comparable fantasy value in 2019 where his projection based rank has him as the #2 player at his position.

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UPWARD STATISTICAL CAREER TREND

Based on his fantasy point average, he is on a clear upward swing. His average Fantasy points have increased by 66% over this time frame.

SEASON TREND201820172016
Fantasy Points16413081
FP Average10.39.36.2
Regular Season GP161413

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

He was the #3 ranked fantasy TE based on total fantasy points. He averaged 10.3 FP per game (#3 ranked based on average). He is holding steady season-to-season in terms of per game fantasy ranking. He is relatively stronger (stats bolded below) than weaker in more categories.

2017-2018FPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (30 Games)293190198716266001
TE Rank#2#1#2#3#2#138#138#59
Average Stats9.86.366.20.538.9000
TE Rank (Averages)#2#1#3#2#1#1#1#63
2018 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (16 Games)16411611638156000
TE Rank#3#1#3#3#1#124#124#1
Average Stats10.37.272.70.59.8000
TE Rank (Averages)#3#1#3#3#1#1#1#1
2017 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (14 Games)128748248110001
TE Rank#3#3#3#2#4#99#99#42
Average Stats9.25.358.90.577.9000.1
TE Rank (Averages)#3#4#3#3#3#1#1#46

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 15.3 points and on DraftKings it was 20.3 per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 3.5 and on FanDuel it was 2.5 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 38 and 29 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All15.3 ($7.3K)4 G, 5 B20.3 ($6.5K)4 G, 5 B
12/30 @WAS3--4.5--
12/23 HOU29 ($7.4K)+13.738 ($5.9K)+17.7
12/16 @LAR3.7 ($7.4K)-11.65.2 ($6.5K)-15.1
12/9 @DAL6.3 ($7.4K)-98.8 ($6.4K)-11.5
12/3 WAS12.8--17.3--
11/25 NYG18.6 ($7.6K)+3.322.1 ($6.4K)--
11/18 @NO2.5 ($7.6K)-12.83.5 ($6.6K)-16.8
11/11 DAL33.5 ($7.5K)+18.243.5 ($6.3K)+23.2
10/28 @JAC10.6 ($7.5K)-4.712.6 ($7.1K)-7.7
10/21 CAR18.3 ($7.5K)--25.8 ($7.1K)+5.5
10/11 @NYG13.8 ($7.5K)--17.3 ($6.8K)--
10/7 MIN22 ($7.5K)+6.730 ($6.5K)+9.7
9/30 @TEN16.2 ($7K)--24.2 ($6.2K)--
9/23 IND9.8 ($7K)-5.512.3 ($6.8K)-8
9/16 @TB14.9 ($6.5K)--20.4 ($6.1K)--
9/6 ATL7.3--9.8--