New Orleans Saints Projected to Take the NFC and Go to The Super Bowl

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

After two heart wrenching playoff losses the Saints are still well positioned to have the best record in the NFC, home field advantage in the playoffs and ultimately win the NFC. They have a 27 percent to 21 percent edge over the Rams to win the NFC.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Saints could take a step back next season. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 8/1, 11.1%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 13.7% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 26.4% chance at 4/1, 20%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

Their 13 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 7-1 on the road and were expected to win 5. They won 6 at home and were expected to win 5.8. Anyone who backed the Saints in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +49 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +340 profit risking 110 to win 100 (10-6 ATS). The Saints have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a lower TD per play allowed rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games31.5 - 22.113-3, +4910-6, +3407-9 56.2% Under
On Road28.9 - 18.57-1, +3506-2, +3802-6 75% Under
At Home34.1 - 25.66-2, +494-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CAR14-33Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 41.5
12/23 PIT31-28Win +35ATS Loss -6.5Over 53
12/17 @CAR12-9Win +38ATS Loss -6Under 50.5
12/9 @TB28-14Win +22Covered -9.5Under 54.5
11/29 @DAL10-13Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 51.5
11/22 ATL31-17Win +14Covered -13Under 60.5
11/18 PHI48-7Win +27Covered -7Under 56.5
11/11 @CIN51-14Win +36Covered -6Over 53.5
11/4 LAR45-35Win +115Covered +2Over 57.5
10/28 @MIN30-20Win +65Covered -2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @BAL24-23Win +125Covered +2.5Under 49.5
10/8 WAS43-19Win +37Covered -6Over 51.5
9/30 @NYG33-18Win +59Covered -3.5Under 51.5
9/23 @ATL43-37Win +105Covered +1.5Over 54
9/16 CLE21-18Win +21ATS Loss -9.5Under 51
9/9 TB40-48Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 49.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games31.5 (#3)6.0% (#2)6.3 (#10)261 (#15)8.0 (#7)127 (#6)4.3 (#17)1.0 (#3)
On the Road28.9 (#2)4.7% (#7)5.7 (#18)224 (#22)7.0 (#21)140 (#3)4.4 (#15)0.9 (#3)
At Home34.1 (#2)7.3% (#1)6.9 (#5)297 (#8)9.1 (#1)114 (#15)4.2 (#21)1.1 (#12)
Last 4 Games21.2 (#19)4.2% (#14)5.7 (#19)212 (#21)6.6 (#21)124 (#12)4.6 (#11)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.1 (#14)4.5% (#21)6.4 (#15)289 (#31)8.1 (#29)80 (#2)3.6 (#2)1.5 (#13)
Road Games18.5 (#2)4.2% (#18)6.2 (#8)264 (#21)7.7 (#18)86 (#3)3.9 (#5)1.4 (#14)
Home Games25.6 (#25)4.8% (#27)6.5 (#22)314 (#32)8.5 (#32)74 (#3)3.3 (#1)1.6 (#12)
Last 4 Games21.0 (#16)4.0% (#19)5.7 (#20)260 (#23)7.0 (#19)95 (#9)3.8 (#7)1.2 (#16)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games31.5 - 22.113-3, +4910-6, +3407-9 56.2% Under
On Road28.9 - 18.57-1, +3506-2, +3802-6 75% Under
At Home34.1 - 25.66-2, +494-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CAR14-33Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 41.5
12/23 PIT31-28Win +35ATS Loss -6.5Over 53
12/17 @CAR12-9Win +38ATS Loss -6Under 50.5
12/9 @TB28-14Win +22Covered -9.5Under 54.5
11/29 @DAL10-13Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 51.5
11/22 ATL31-17Win +14Covered -13Under 60.5
11/18 PHI48-7Win +27Covered -7Under 56.5
11/11 @CIN51-14Win +36Covered -6Over 53.5
11/4 LAR45-35Win +115Covered +2Over 57.5
10/28 @MIN30-20Win +65Covered -2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @BAL24-23Win +125Covered +2.5Under 49.5
10/8 WAS43-19Win +37Covered -6Over 51.5
9/30 @NYG33-18Win +59Covered -3.5Under 51.5
9/23 @ATL43-37Win +105Covered +1.5Over 54
9/16 CLE21-18Win +21ATS Loss -9.5Under 51
9/9 TB40-48Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 49.5