Dallas Cowboys are Good, But Not Great Heading into 2019

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

Their chances of making the playoffs is a lot lower than you might expect. This is because of their tough first place schedule made especially tough with games at Chicago, at New England, at New Orleans and at the emerging Jets.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Cowboys may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their odds (25/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 3.8%. Their simulation based probability is 1.9%. Their odds (12/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 7.7%. Their simulation based probability is 4.8%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went much better than expected. They won 10 games vs an expected win total of 7.7. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.1. Their 87.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (57%). Anyone who backed the Cowboys in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +239 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +240 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-6 ATS). The Cowboys are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games21.2 - 20.210-6, +2399-6, +2407-9 56.2% Under
On Road17.4 - 22.03-5, +2104-4, -402-6 75% Under
At Home25.0 - 18.57-1, +5845-2, +2805-3 62.5% Over
12/30 @NYG36-35Win +260Covered +7.5Over 38.5
12/23 TB27-20Win +29ATS Push -7Under 48
12/16 @IND0-23Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 47
12/9 PHI29-23Win +56Covered -3.5Over 45.5
11/29 NO13-10Win +280Covered +7.5Under 51.5
11/22 WAS31-23Win +28Covered -7Over 40
11/18 @ATL22-19Win +160Covered +3.5Under 50
11/11 @PHI27-20Win +290Covered +7.5Over 45.5
11/5 TEN14-28Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 40
10/21 @WAS17-20Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 40.5
10/14 JAC40-7Win +150Covered +3Over 39.5
10/7 @HOU16-19Loss -100Covered +3.5Under 45.5
9/30 DET26-24Win +74ATS Loss -2.5Over 44
9/23 @SEA13-24Loss -100ATS Loss +1Under 40
9/16 NYG20-13Win +67Covered -3Under 42
9/9 @CAR8-16Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 42

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.2 (#22)3.6% (#22)6.1 (#19)243 (#20)7.4 (#16)123 (#10)4.5 (#14)1.1 (#6)
On the Road17.4 (#26)3.2% (#23)5.9 (#22)236 (#21)6.8 (#22)112 (#16)4.6 (#11)1.4 (#13)
At Home25.0 (#14)4.0% (#17)6.2 (#14)249 (#19)8.0 (#10)133 (#7)4.3 (#16)0.9 (#6)
Last 4 Games23.0 (#12)3.8% (#19)6.0 (#5)302 (#3)7.5 (#8)96 (#21)3.7 (#26)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.2 (#6)3.6% (#8)5.8 (#6)249 (#12)7.4 (#13)95 (#5)3.8 (#5)1.2 (#16)
Road Games22.0 (#10)3.2% (#3)6.0 (#18)256 (#16)7.7 (#20)119 (#16)4.1 (#8)1.0 (#22)
Home Games18.5 (#7)4.1% (#19)5.6 (#6)242 (#11)7.0 (#13)70 (#2)3.4 (#3)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games25.2 (#26)4.4% (#24)5.9 (#24)264 (#24)7.1 (#21)104 (#14)4.1 (#17)1.5 (#12)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games21.2 - 20.210-6, +2399-6, +2407-9 56.2% Under
On Road17.4 - 22.03-5, +2104-4, -402-6 75% Under
At Home25.0 - 18.57-1, +5845-2, +2805-3 62.5% Over
12/30 @NYG36-35Win +260Covered +7.5Over 38.5
12/23 TB27-20Win +29ATS Push -7Under 48
12/16 @IND0-23Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 47
12/9 PHI29-23Win +56Covered -3.5Over 45.5
11/29 NO13-10Win +280Covered +7.5Under 51.5
11/22 WAS31-23Win +28Covered -7Over 40
11/18 @ATL22-19Win +160Covered +3.5Under 50
11/11 @PHI27-20Win +290Covered +7.5Over 45.5
11/5 TEN14-28Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 40
10/21 @WAS17-20Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 40.5
10/14 JAC40-7Win +150Covered +3Over 39.5
10/7 @HOU16-19Loss -100Covered +3.5Under 45.5
9/30 DET26-24Win +74ATS Loss -2.5Over 44
9/23 @SEA13-24Loss -100ATS Loss +1Under 40
9/16 NYG20-13Win +67Covered -3Under 42
9/9 @CAR8-16Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 42