Pittsburgh Steelers are Projected for 9 Wins By Vegas and Computer

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

The Vegas betting line and the computer simluations both have the Steelers projected for 9 wins. Their team chemistry may be better without Antonio Brown or the Leveon Bell distraction but their talent is not.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Steelers are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. Their odds (20/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 4.8%. Their simulation based probability is 2.1%. Their odds (10/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 9.1%. Their simulation based probability is 4.6%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went as expected. They won 9 games vs an expected win total of 9.6. They went 4-4 on the road and were expected to win 4.4. They won 5 at home and were expected to win 5.2. Anyone who backed the Steelers in all of their games on the money line would be down -37 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +30 profit risking 110 to win 100 (8-7 ATS). The Steelers have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a top 10 team based on yards per play allowed but only an average team in points allowed. They are the #18 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games26.8 - 22.59-7, -378-7, +308-8 50% Over
On Road23.5 - 22.54-4, -504-3, +703-5 62.5% Under
At Home30.0 - 22.55-3, -404-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CIN16-13Win +13ATS Loss -14Under 45
12/23 @NO28-31Loss -100Covered +6.5Over 53
12/16 NE17-10Win +120Covered +2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @OAK21-24Loss -100ATS Loss -10Under 51
12/2 LAC30-33Loss -100ATS Loss -3Over 53
11/25 @DEN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 47.5
11/18 @JAC20-16Win +45ATS Push -4Under 47
11/8 CAR52-21Win +50Covered -3.5Over 51
11/4 @BAL23-16Win +105Covered +1.5Under 47
10/28 CLE33-18Win +23Covered -8.5Over 47.5
10/14 @CIN28-21Win +100Covered +1.5Under 49.5
10/7 ATL41-17Win +54Covered -3.5Over 57
9/30 BAL14-26Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 51
9/24 @TB30-27Win +100Covered +1Over 55
9/16 KC37-42Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 52.5
9/9 @CLE21-21Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 41

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.8 (#6)4.9% (#7)6.4 (#4)323 (#2)7.5 (#13)90 (#31)4.2 (#24)1.6 (#26)
On the Road23.5 (#12)4.3% (#16)6.5 (#2)352 (#1)7.7 (#9)84 (#30)4.0 (#27)2.1 (#29)
At Home30.0 (#5)5.6% (#4)6.3 (#12)295 (#9)7.3 (#18)97 (#28)4.4 (#15)1.1 (#12)
Last 4 Games20.5 (#21)3.6% (#22)6.2 (#9)302 (#4)7.2 (#12)82 (#29)4.0 (#19)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.5 (#16)4.3% (#18)6.0 (#8)253 (#14)7.1 (#11)96 (#6)4.2 (#9)0.9 (#29)
Road Games22.5 (#11)4.3% (#19)5.8 (#7)250 (#13)6.9 (#6)97 (#7)4.0 (#7)1.0 (#22)
Home Games22.5 (#21)4.2% (#21)6.2 (#12)255 (#18)7.4 (#18)95 (#7)4.3 (#14)0.9 (#28)
Last 4 Games19.5 (#10)3.7% (#14)6.3 (#12)256 (#22)7.6 (#28)83 (#6)4.1 (#18)0.8 (#25)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games26.8 - 22.59-7, -378-7, +308-8 50% Over
On Road23.5 - 22.54-4, -504-3, +703-5 62.5% Under
At Home30.0 - 22.55-3, -404-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CIN16-13Win +13ATS Loss -14Under 45
12/23 @NO28-31Loss -100Covered +6.5Over 53
12/16 NE17-10Win +120Covered +2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @OAK21-24Loss -100ATS Loss -10Under 51
12/2 LAC30-33Loss -100ATS Loss -3Over 53
11/25 @DEN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 47.5
11/18 @JAC20-16Win +45ATS Push -4Under 47
11/8 CAR52-21Win +50Covered -3.5Over 51
11/4 @BAL23-16Win +105Covered +1.5Under 47
10/28 CLE33-18Win +23Covered -8.5Over 47.5
10/14 @CIN28-21Win +100Covered +1.5Under 49.5
10/7 ATL41-17Win +54Covered -3.5Over 57
9/30 BAL14-26Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 51
9/24 @TB30-27Win +100Covered +1Over 55
9/16 KC37-42Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 52.5
9/9 @CLE21-21Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 41