Alex Smith Contributed as a Spot Starter in Fantasy

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Alex Smith was a bench player and spot starter this past fantasy season. He was the number #32 ranked QB. His value would have been higher if he had played more games. Based on average fantasy points he was the #30 QB. His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 3 games he averaged 19.2 FPs and that declined to 13.3 in his final 4 games. A fast start and slow end is somewhat expected given his age. He averaged 15.9 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 24 fantasy points with a floor of 5 points.

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

Getting older predictably resulted in a drop in production. His fantasy average dropped by 32 percent.

SEASON TREND201820172016
Fantasy Points159349223
FP Average15.923.315.9
Regular Season GP101514

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

Alex Smith only saw the field in 10 games in 2018. In 2017 he averaged 23.1 FP per game. Based on total fantasy production he was the #3 fantasy QB. Assuming he can be back on the field as strong as he has in the past, Smith is poised to re-establish himself as an elite fantasy QB. He is stronger in certain categories which are bolded below.

2017-2018FPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (25 Games)505546/833, 65.5%622236105232
QB Rank#17#19#18#22#16#11#21
Average Stats20.221.8/33.3, 65.5%2491.40.420.90.1
QB Rank (Averages)#18#19#19#23#8#14#35
2018 SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (10 Games)158205/328, 62.5%21801051681
QB Rank#32#32#31#32#9#14#19
Average Stats15.820.5/32.8, 62.5%21810.516.80.1
QB Rank (Averages)#31#32#24#33#8#18#24
2017 SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (15 Games)347341/505, 67.5%40422653551
QB Rank#3#6#8#9#5#6#16
Average Stats23.122.7/33.7, 67.5%2691.70.323.70.1
QB Rank (Averages)#4#6#8#10#3#7#22

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 14.3 points and on DraftKings it was 14.6 per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 12.4 and on FanDuel it was 12.4 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 19.6 and 17.8 on FanDuel. He has had more good FanDuel games (exceed average by 20%) than bad games (20% below average), and the same was true on DraftKings.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All14.3 ($7.2K)3 G, 1 B14.6 ($5.4K)3 G, 1 B
11/18 HOU6.7 ($7K)-7.66.7 ($4.8K)-7.9
11/11 @TB12.7 ($7.6K)--12.7 ($5.3K)--
11/4 ATL17.4 ($7.5K)+3.120.4 ($5K)+5.8
10/28 @NYG12.4 ($7.2K)--12.4 ($5K)--
10/21 DAL12.7 ($7.4K)--12.7 ($5.1K)--
10/14 CAR15.8 ($7.4K)--15.8 ($5.4K)--
10/8 @NO14.7 ($7.1K)--14.7 ($5.8K)--
9/23 GB17.8 ($7.1K)+3.517.8 ($5.8K)+3.2
9/16 IND13.1 ($7.1K)--13.1 ($6K)--
9/9 @ARI19.6 ($6.9K)+5.319.6 ($5.6K)+5