NFL Outlook: Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to Win the Super Bowl at 6/1, 14.3%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Chargers

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

With Tyreek Hill not suspended and the addition of even more speed in Darwin Thompson and Mecole Hardman the Chiefs, who were 1 possession away from the Super Bowl last season, look well positioned in 2019. Oddsmakers and our simulation say Chiefs have the best chance to win the Super Bowl (6/1, 14.3%). Even with the juice, the Chiefs are a good betting value. Their 17.8% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the AFC at 3/1, 25%. Their sim chance is 29%. The Chiefs are averaging 10.9 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 10.5 games. At -400 the Chiefs are a good value to make the playoffs with a 87% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 4/9, 69.2%. They win the division in 61.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 64%). They were very good against the spread going 9-6-1 for (+240 profit). They went over 10 times and came in under 6 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Jacksonville Jaguars. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 JAC62%1-01-00-1
9/15 OAK78%2-01-11-1
9/22 BAL68%1-00-11-0
9/29 DET67%0-00-00-0
10/6 IND69%1-01-00-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games35.3 (#1)6.8% (#1)7.2 (#1)320 (#3)8.8 (#1)116 (#16)4.8 (#6)1.1 (#6)
On the Road38.2 (#1)7.5% (#1)7.7 (#1)332 (#2)9.1 (#1)129 (#8)5.5 (#1)1.5 (#18)
At Home32.4 (#4)6.1% (#2)6.7 (#4)308 (#3)8.5 (#6)103 (#23)4.1 (#25)0.8 (#3)
Last 4 Games30.2 (#1)5.7% (#1)6.6 (#3)301 (#5)7.8 (#6)102 (#18)4.5 (#13)1.0 (#7)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.3 (#24)4.6% (#24)6.5 (#32)295 (#32)7.5 (#16)132 (#27)5.0 (#31)1.7 (#8)
Road Games34.6 (#31)5.6% (#29)6.9 (#32)342 (#32)8.1 (#28)131 (#24)4.9 (#28)1.2 (#18)
Home Games18.0 (#6)3.6% (#10)6.0 (#21)248 (#13)6.7 (#7)134 (#28)5.1 (#29)2.1 (#3)
Last 4 Games23.5 (#22)4.6% (#26)6.0 (#31)229 (#18)7.3 (#23)164 (#31)4.8 (#24)1.8 (#7)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Patrick Mahomes who is projected to be the #1 QB the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Patrick Mahomes1001--Aaron Rodgers
Tyreek Hill993DeAndre HopkinsJulio Jones
Travis Kelce991--Zach Ertz
Damien Williams8024Tevin ColemanLamar Miller
Harrison Butker968Will LutzAdam Vinatieri
Sammy Watkins6635Will FullerDante Pettis
Anthony Hitchens2420Eric KendricksZach Cunningham
Darwin Thompson248Alexander MattisonLeSean McCoy
Carlos Hyde4750LeSean McCoyChris Thompson
Kansas City Defense6010New England DefenseLA Chargers Defense