NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures 2019

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 1.5%. The New England Patriots at 27.5% trails the Kansas City Chiefs at 29%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Patriots chances are down from 34.2 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.37 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Kansas City Chiefs10.961.2%87.0%3/1 (25%)29.0%
New England Patriots11.085.7%91.2%3/1 (25%)27.5%
Los Angeles Chargers9.935.1%70.9%8/1 (11.1%)13.3%
Indianapolis Colts9.352.4%64.0%6/1 (14.3%)7.8%
Baltimore Ravens9.132.0%52.1%20/1 (4.8%)6.2%
Cleveland Browns9.134.7%53.8%8/1 (11.1%)5.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.729.6%47.9%9/1 (10%)4.7%
Houston Texans7.919.9%31.4%20/1 (4.8%)2.4%
Tennessee Titans7.315.5%23.5%40/1 (2.4%)1.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.012.2%19.3%20/1 (4.8%)0.7%
Denver Broncos7.03.1%14.5%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
New York Jets7.49.6%20.9%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
Buffalo Bills6.74.3%11.3%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Cincinnati Bengals6.33.7%8.4%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Oakland Raiders5.20.5%2.5%30/1 (3.2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.70.4%1.3%250/1 (0.4%)--

There is a 6.7% difference between the Saints and the Rams. The Los Angeles Rams at 21.1% trails the New Orleans Saints at 27.7%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. This is a wide open conference with 8 teams having at least a four percent chance of winning.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints10.777.8%86.9%4/1 (20%)27.7%
Los Angeles Rams10.161.9%78.5%4/1 (20%)21.1%
Philadelphia Eagles9.659.2%70.4%13/2 (13.3%)12.2%
Seattle Seahawks8.927.7%52.0%15/1 (6.2%)8.3%
Chicago Bears8.729.3%46.9%13/2 (13.3%)7.4%
Dallas Cowboys8.425.5%41.6%10/1 (9.1%)5.2%
Minnesota Vikings8.124.2%37.1%12/1 (7.7%)4.5%
Green Bay Packers8.426.9%42.2%13/2 (13.3%)4.4%
Detroit Lions8.119.7%34.2%50/1 (2%)3.1%
Atlanta Falcons7.710.6%25.7%15/1 (6.2%)1.8%
San Francisco 49ers7.59.2%24.8%20/1 (4.8%)1.7%
Carolina Panthers7.37.4%18.6%30/1 (3.2%)1.1%
New York Giants6.88.2%15.1%50/1 (2%)0.7%
Washington Redskins6.47.1%12.0%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.34.2%10.3%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Arizona Cardinals5.51.2%3.7%150/1 (0.7%)--

Using a level of having at least a two percent chance, there are 12 'contending' teams. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At the top, the Chiefs have a 2 percentage point lead over the Patriots. The separation between the team with the #10 highest chances vs the #12 highest is 1 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%17.8%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%15.8%--
New Orleans Saints10/19.1%13.7%--
Los Angeles Rams10/19.1%10.2%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%7.4%--
Philadelphia Eagles14/16.7%5.3%--
Indianapolis Colts14/16.7%3.8%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%3.7%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%3.1%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%3.1%--
Cleveland Browns20/14.8%2.6%--
Dallas Cowboys20/14.8%2.1%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%2.0%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%1.9%--
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%1.7%--
Detroit Lions100/11.0%1.2%--
Houston Texans40/12.4%1.1%--