NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures 2019: Bet on Chiefs, Patriots and Chargers?

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 1.2%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 27.9% trails the New England Patriots at 29.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Browns average the #5 most wins and the Steelers average the #7 most so the difference (0.34 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.086.4%91.7%3/1 (25%)29.1%
Kansas City Chiefs10.958.9%86.4%3/1 (25%)27.9%
Los Angeles Chargers10.037.9%73.3%8/1 (11.1%)14.5%
Indianapolis Colts9.247.9%59.9%6/1 (14.3%)7.4%
Cleveland Browns9.135.0%53.4%8/1 (11.1%)5.3%
Baltimore Ravens9.030.4%49.8%20/1 (4.8%)5.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.730.6%48.6%9/1 (10%)4.5%
Houston Texans8.122.8%35.2%20/1 (4.8%)2.5%
Tennessee Titans7.416.7%25.5%40/1 (2.4%)1.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.112.6%19.6%20/1 (4.8%)0.7%
New York Jets7.39.2%20.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
Denver Broncos6.92.7%13.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.5%
Buffalo Bills6.64.0%10.7%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Cincinnati Bengals6.44.0%8.8%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Oakland Raiders5.20.5%2.5%30/1 (3.2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.60.4%1.2%250/1 (0.4%)--

There is a 5.1% difference between conference leaders. The Los Angeles Rams at 22.3% trails the New Orleans Saints at 27.4%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Bears average the #5 most wins and the Cowboys average the #7 most so the difference (0.48 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There is parity in the conference. There are 8 teams winning the conference in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints10.778.3%87.4%4/1 (20%)27.4%
Los Angeles Rams10.364.8%81.2%4/1 (20%)22.3%
Philadelphia Eagles9.659.6%70.4%13/2 (13.3%)12.2%
Seattle Seahawks8.925.3%51.5%15/1 (6.2%)7.9%
Chicago Bears8.931.9%49.6%13/2 (13.3%)7.4%
Green Bay Packers8.528.2%43.6%13/2 (13.3%)5.0%
Dallas Cowboys8.424.9%40.6%10/1 (9.1%)4.5%
Minnesota Vikings8.022.2%35.1%12/1 (7.7%)4.0%
Detroit Lions7.917.7%31.7%50/1 (2%)3.2%
Atlanta Falcons7.79.9%24.6%15/1 (6.2%)1.9%
Carolina Panthers7.37.9%19.5%30/1 (3.2%)1.6%
San Francisco 49ers7.79.2%26.6%20/1 (4.8%)1.5%
New York Giants6.88.2%14.6%50/1 (2%)0.6%
Washington Redskins6.47.3%12.3%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.23.9%9.1%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Arizona Cardinals5.10.7%2.2%150/1 (0.7%)--

This is a normal year with 12 teams having at least a two percent chance of winning it all. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At the top, the Chiefs have a 1.2 percentage point lead over the Patriots. Teams are bunched together at the bottom of the contenders list with just 0.5 percentage points separating the #10 ranked team from the #12 ranked team.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%17.7%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%16.4%--
New Orleans Saints10/19.1%13.8%--
Los Angeles Rams10/19.1%11.0%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%7.8%--
Philadelphia Eagles14/16.7%5.1%--
Indianapolis Colts14/16.7%3.8%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%3.4%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%3.1%--
Cleveland Browns20/14.8%2.5%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.4%--
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%2.0%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%1.9%--
Dallas Cowboys20/14.8%1.8%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%1.6%--
Detroit Lions100/11.0%1.3%--