NFL Outlook: The Chicago Bears are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Cowboys and Behind the Seahawks in the NFC

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 14/1, 6.7% odds to win the Super Bowl. Their 3.5% chance is #9 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the NFC 7.5% of the time and are not a good value at 13/2, 13.3%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 9 games. The Bears are averaging 8.8 wins per sim. At -120 the Bears are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 49.1% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 2/1, 33.3%. They win the division in 31.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 12-4 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 9.6-6.4. Their ATS record was the same as their win-loss record and they turned a strong +760 profit. They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Green Bay Packers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/5 GB58%1-12-01-1
9/15 DEN54%0-00-00-0
9/23 WAS64%0-00-00-0
9/29 MIN60%2-02-01-1
10/6 OAK71%0-00-00-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.3 (#9)4.5% (#11)5.8 (#23)234 (#22)7.3 (#17)121 (#11)4.1 (#27)1.5 (#22)
On the Road24.5 (#8)4.0% (#17)5.6 (#23)222 (#24)7.0 (#20)113 (#15)4.0 (#25)1.6 (#21)
At Home28.1 (#9)5.0% (#10)6.0 (#19)246 (#21)7.6 (#15)129 (#8)4.3 (#19)1.4 (#19)
Last 4 Games19.2 (#24)3.7% (#20)5.4 (#20)188 (#24)6.7 (#20)138 (#7)4.3 (#16)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games17.7 (#1)2.8% (#1)5.4 (#3)241 (#7)6.3 (#1)80 (#1)3.8 (#4)2.2 (#1)
Road Games17.9 (#1)2.9% (#1)5.6 (#4)241 (#10)6.4 (#2)93 (#4)4.2 (#12)2.1 (#1)
Home Games17.5 (#5)2.7% (#3)5.2 (#5)240 (#10)6.1 (#3)67 (#1)3.3 (#2)2.4 (#1)
Last 4 Games10.5 (#1)0.9% (#1)4.9 (#1)208 (#7)5.3 (#2)62 (#2)4.0 (#13)1.5 (#12)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Trey Burton who is projected to be the #16 TE. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Trey Burton7116Austin HooperJimmy Graham
Mitchell Trubisky9023Derek CarrSam Darnold
David Montgomery725Mark IngramPhillip Lindsay
Tarik Cohen9729Kenyan DrakeJames White
Allen Robinson8241Donte MoncriefSammy Watkins
Anthony Miller3452Corey DavisZay Jones
Roquan Smith7510Tremaine EdmundsKiko Alonso
Mike Davis3565Alfred BlueFrank Gore
Adam Shaheen166Tyler KroftJacob Hollister
Eddy Pineiro020Graham GanoJake Elliott
Chicago Defense991--Minnesota Defense