NFL Outlook: The Cleveland Browns are a Good Bet to Make the Playoffs at +100...Projected to Finish Ahead of Ravens

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Browns should meet regular season expectations but once the playoffs come around they could struggle. They are one of 3 teams with 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.8% chance is #10 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 5.8% of the time and are not a good value at 8/1, 11.1%. The Browns are averaging 9.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 9 wins. At +100 the Browns are a good value to make the playoffs with a 53% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 13/10, 43.5%. They win the division in 34.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 7-8-1 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 6.5-9.5. They were very good against the spread going 10-6 for (+340 profit). More of their games came in under (8) than went over (7). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Tennessee Titans. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 TEN65%0-00-00-0
9/16 NYJ58%1-01-00-1
9/22 LAR45%0-00-00-0
9/29 BAL40%1-12-01-1
10/7 SF47%0-00-00-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.4 (#20)4.5% (#13)6.2 (#13)266 (#13)7.4 (#15)118 (#14)4.6 (#11)1.5 (#22)
On the Road23.8 (#11)5.1% (#3)6.3 (#15)269 (#11)7.6 (#10)99 (#22)4.2 (#20)2.0 (#28)
At Home21.1 (#25)3.9% (#19)6.2 (#9)263 (#15)7.2 (#19)138 (#5)4.9 (#4)1.0 (#8)
Last 4 Games23.2 (#11)4.9% (#5)7.1 (#4)287 (#6)8.6 (#1)112 (#14)4.9 (#7)1.8 (#25)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.5 (#21)3.8% (#12)6.0 (#30)273 (#25)7.0 (#8)135 (#28)4.7 (#24)1.9 (#2)
Road Games27.0 (#24)3.5% (#5)5.9 (#30)277 (#26)6.7 (#5)141 (#28)4.7 (#24)1.9 (#2)
Home Games22.0 (#19)4.1% (#20)6.2 (#28)269 (#25)7.3 (#16)130 (#25)4.8 (#23)2.0 (#5)
Last 4 Games20.0 (#11)2.8% (#6)5.6 (#16)217 (#11)6.5 (#6)132 (#22)4.5 (#21)1.0 (#21)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nick Chubb who is projected to be the #6 RB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Nick Chubb996James ConnerLe`Veon Bell
Odell Beckham946JuJu Smith-SchusterMike Evans
David Njoku7711Vance McDonaldJordan Reed
Baker Mayfield8612Andrew LuckDrew Brees
Jarvis Landry9633Dante PettisCurtis Samuel
Demetrius Harris043Mo Alie-CoxHayden Hurst
Kareem Hunt5353Jaylen SamuelsDevin Singletary
Joe Schobert2917Fred WarnerTahir Whitehead
Greg Joseph317Giorgio TavecchioChris Boswell
Antonio Callaway1768D.K. MetcalfRobert Foster
Cleveland Defense4217LA Chargers DefenseSeattle Defense