NFL Outlook: The Cowboys Tough Schdule With 3 of Last Season's Final 4 + Zeke Holdout = Disappointment

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They face 3 of the Final 4 teams from last season, two on the road (@NO, @NE, LAR). This makes their schedule mcuh tougher. If all things were equal they would be real contenders, but with this strength of schedule and Zeke Elliott's Holdout, they could be in trouble. There are 3 teams who have 18/1, 5.3% odds to win the Super Bowl. Their 1.7% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the NFC 4.2% of the time and are not a good value at 8/1, 11.1%. The Cowboys are averaging 8.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. At +105 the Cowboys are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 39.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/5, 38.5%. They win the division in 25.3% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They overachieved last season. Their game odds projected to 7.6 wins. Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. They were very good against the spread going 9-6-1 for (+240 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the New York Giants. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 NYG69%2-02-01-1
9/15 WAS52%1-11-11-1
9/22 MIA78%0-00-00-0
9/29 NO29%1-01-00-1
10/6 GB60%0-00-00-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.2 (#22)3.6% (#22)6.1 (#19)243 (#20)7.4 (#16)123 (#10)4.5 (#14)1.1 (#6)
On the Road17.4 (#26)3.2% (#23)5.9 (#22)236 (#21)6.8 (#22)112 (#16)4.6 (#11)1.4 (#13)
At Home25.0 (#14)4.0% (#17)6.2 (#14)249 (#19)8.0 (#10)133 (#7)4.3 (#16)0.9 (#6)
Last 4 Games23.0 (#12)3.8% (#19)6.0 (#5)302 (#3)7.5 (#8)96 (#21)3.7 (#26)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.2 (#6)3.6% (#8)5.8 (#6)249 (#12)7.4 (#13)95 (#5)3.8 (#5)1.2 (#16)
Road Games22.0 (#10)3.2% (#3)6.0 (#18)256 (#16)7.7 (#20)119 (#16)4.1 (#8)1.0 (#22)
Home Games18.5 (#7)4.1% (#19)5.6 (#6)242 (#11)7.0 (#13)70 (#2)3.4 (#3)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games25.2 (#26)4.4% (#24)5.9 (#24)264 (#24)7.1 (#21)104 (#14)4.1 (#17)1.5 (#12)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Ezekiel Elliott who is projected to be the #4 RB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Ezekiel Elliott994Christian McCaffreyJames Conner
Dak Prescott8619Kyler MurrayJimmy Garoppolo
Amari Cooper9819Cooper KuppTyler Lockett
Jason Witten529Will DisslyIan Thomas
Tony Pollard1446Chris ThompsonRoyce Freeman
Leighton Vander Esch932Darius LeonardLuke Kuechly
Demarcus Lawrence596Calais CampbellDanielle Hunter
Brett Maher6211Adam VinatieriJason Myers
Blake Jarwin264Drew SampleTyler Kroft
Michael Gallup2067Deebo SamuelAntonio Callaway
Dallas Defense6517LA Chargers DefenseSeattle Defense