NFL Outlook: Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles to Win Less Than 10 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of Seahawks

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Bet on the Eagles if you think Carson Wentz will return to 2017 form. But the sims still are going to rely heavily on 2018 stats where the Eagles were not nearly as good with Wentz. There are 5 teams who have 12/1, 7.7% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 5% chance is #6 in the league. In simulations, they win the NFC 11.8% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. The Eagles are averaging 9.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 10 wins. At -220 the Eagles are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 68.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 5/8, 61.5%. They win the division in 58.3% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 9-7 met expectations. They were not good against the spread going 6-9-1 (-390 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Washington Redskins. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 WAS71%2-02-00-2
9/15 ATL49%1-01-00-1
9/22 DET64%0-00-00-0
9/26 GB51%0-00-00-0
10/6 NYJ69%0-00-00-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game. They are the #16 ranked team based on yards per play and the #15 ranked team based on offensive TD per play. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.9 (#18)4.1% (#15)6.1 (#16)283 (#8)7.6 (#12)98 (#28)3.9 (#30)1.4 (#20)
On the Road23.2 (#13)4.5% (#11)6.0 (#17)268 (#13)7.3 (#15)98 (#26)4.0 (#24)1.4 (#13)
At Home22.6 (#19)3.7% (#21)6.2 (#10)298 (#6)7.8 (#12)99 (#26)3.9 (#30)1.5 (#21)
Last 4 Games27.2 (#3)5.3% (#3)6.2 (#8)303 (#2)8.2 (#3)83 (#28)3.3 (#30)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.8 (#12)3.8% (#11)6.4 (#24)289 (#30)7.4 (#14)97 (#7)4.7 (#21)1.1 (#22)
Road Games23.0 (#15)3.9% (#16)6.5 (#29)322 (#31)7.8 (#23)94 (#5)4.1 (#9)1.5 (#9)
Home Games20.5 (#11)3.6% (#11)6.3 (#13)255 (#19)6.8 (#11)100 (#9)5.4 (#31)0.6 (#31)
Last 4 Games20.5 (#15)3.4% (#11)5.9 (#30)308 (#32)7.0 (#17)77 (#4)3.6 (#5)2.0 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Zach Ertz who is projected to be the #2 TE. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Zach Ertz992Travis KelceGeorge Kittle
Carson Wentz8210Jameis WinstonBaker Mayfield
Alshon Jeffery9523Tyler BoydCalvin Ridley
Dallas Goedert1324Jack DoyleLuke Stocker
Miles Sanders2032James WhiteDerrius Guice
Jordan Howard9438Rashaad PennyPeyton Barber
DeSean Jackson6846Corey DavisMohamed Sanu
Jake Elliott529Matt PraterAdam Vinatieri
Nelson Agholor3359Keke CouteeGeronimo Allison
Malcolm Jenkins4910Clayton GeathersJordan Poyer
Philadelphia Defense5521Tennessee DefenseDetroit Defense