NFL Outlook: The Pittsburgh Steelers are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Texans and Behind the Ravens in the AFC

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.2% chance is #13 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 4.8% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 9 games. The Steelers are averaging 8.8 wins per sim. At -110 the Steelers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 49.3% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/5, 38.5%. They win the division in 30.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 60% of their games last season so their 9-6-1 met expectations. They were solid against the spread going 8-7-1 for (+30 profit). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times. In their next game vs the Patriots they are only winning 30% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 NE30%1-01-00-1
9/15 SEA54%0-00-00-0
9/22 SF49%0-00-00-0
9/30 CIN73%2-01-10-2
10/6 BAL54%1-11-10-2

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a top 10 team based on yards per play allowed but only an average team in points allowed. They are the #18 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.8 (#6)4.9% (#7)6.4 (#4)323 (#2)7.5 (#13)90 (#31)4.2 (#24)1.6 (#26)
On the Road23.5 (#12)4.3% (#16)6.5 (#2)352 (#1)7.7 (#9)84 (#30)4.0 (#27)2.1 (#29)
At Home30.0 (#5)5.6% (#4)6.3 (#12)295 (#9)7.3 (#18)97 (#28)4.4 (#15)1.1 (#12)
Last 4 Games20.5 (#21)3.6% (#22)6.2 (#9)302 (#4)7.2 (#12)82 (#29)4.0 (#19)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.5 (#16)4.3% (#18)6.0 (#8)253 (#14)7.1 (#11)96 (#6)4.2 (#9)0.9 (#29)
Road Games22.5 (#11)4.3% (#19)5.8 (#7)250 (#13)6.9 (#6)97 (#7)4.0 (#7)1.0 (#22)
Home Games22.5 (#21)4.2% (#21)6.2 (#12)255 (#18)7.4 (#18)95 (#7)4.3 (#14)0.9 (#28)
Last 4 Games19.5 (#10)3.7% (#14)6.3 (#12)256 (#22)7.6 (#28)83 (#6)4.1 (#18)0.8 (#25)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by James Conner who is projected to be the #5 RB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
James Conner955Ezekiel ElliottLe`Veon Bell
JuJu Smith-Schuster995Davante AdamsOdell Beckham
Ben Roethlisberger976Cam NewtonJared Goff
Vance McDonald779Hunter HenryDavid Njoku
Donte Moncrief3139Sterling ShepardLarry Fitzgerald
Xavier Grimble053Ross DwelleyRhett Ellison
Jaylen Samuels8254Justice HillJustin Jackson
James Washington2056Albert WilsonDevin Funchess
Chris Boswell4918Giorgio TavecchioGraham Gano
Cameron Heyward3021Dee FordDenico Autry
Pittsburgh Defense6315Cleveland DefenseLA Chargers Defense