Fantasy Sleepers: Darwin Thompson the Next Phillip Lindsay

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

Last season, Phillip Lindsay became the first undrafted offensive rookie to make the Pro Bowl. While Darwin Thompson wasn’t undrafted, I can see him bursting onto the scene for the Chiefs as a relatively unheard of 6th rounder out of Utah State. At just 5’8” 200 lbs, Thompson cranked out 28 reps on the bench press at 225 pounds, ran a 4.50 40-yard dash, and recorded a 39-inch vertical jump during Utah State’s pro day. After spending his first two seasons at a Junior College, Thompson rushed for 1,044 yards including 765 yards after contact. His 6.8 YPC was first in the Mountain West among qualified players. While Damien Williams is the Chiefs’ starter, I could see Thompson having a Tarik Cohen-like role for the Chiefs this season, especially with Tyreek Hill facing a possible suspension.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK

You can expect Darwin Thompson to be a good bench player who will start in certain weeks the rest of the season. His 110 projected fantasy points puts him at #42 behind Dion Lewis and ahead of LeSean McCoy. His projected per game average is 6.9 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#43) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is slightly less valuable in PPR leagues where he is the #43 ranked running back. He is slightly underrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 78%, he is the #44 most highly owned running back.

REST OF SEASON RB RANKPROJECTIONFANTASY STATS SINCE 2018
#40 Jordan Howard (89% OWN)114 FP, 7.1 per game160 FP, 16 gp, 10 per game (#27)
#41 Dion Lewis (79% OWN)113 FP, 7 per game102 FP, 16 gp, 6.4 per game (#42)
#42 Darwin Thompson (78% OWN)110 FP, 6.9 per game102 FP, 16 gp, 6.4 per game (#42)
#43 LeSean McCoy (81% OWN)106 FP, 6.6 per game93 FP, 14 gp, 6.7 per game (#40)
#44 Chris Thompson (49% OWN)103 FP, 6.4 per game51 FP, 10 gp, 5.1 per game (#56)

SIT DARWIN THOMPSON IN WEEK 1... PROJECTED FOR FEWER FPS THAN C.J. ANDERSON

Darwin Thompson is projected for 6.3 fantasy points which projects to being the #50 ranked running back. This may be a week you want to sit Darwin Thompson. This is projected to be a slightly below average week with fewer fantasy points than he is projected to average the rest of the season. He is ranked above Jaylen Samuels but behind C.J. Anderson. Week 2 will be better based on projected rank (#33). He is projected for 8.2 fantasy points.

WEEK 1 RB RANKPROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#48 Ronald Jones (48% OWN)6.5 FP (1% ST)6.1 FP
#49 C.J. Anderson (38% OWN)6.4 FP (3% ST)5.9 FP
#50 Darwin Thompson (78% OWN)6.3 FP (5% ST)6.9 FP
#51 Jaylen Samuels (72% OWN)6.3 FP (8% ST)6.3 FP
#52 Jalen Richard (37% OWN)6.1 FP (2% ST)6 FP
WEEK 2 RB RANKPROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#31 Miles Sanders (87% OWN)8.4 FP (27% ST)8.1 FP
#32 Duke Johnson (94% OWN)8.3 FP (53% ST)8.2 FP
#33 Darwin Thompson (78% OWN)8.2 FP (5% ST)6.9 FP
#34 Tony Pollard (79% OWN)8.1 FP (21% ST)6.4 FP
#35 Tarik Cohen (97% OWN)7.9 FP (42% ST)8.2 FP

DARWIN THOMPSON IS A BETTER VALUE ON DRAFTKINGS AT $3K THAN ON FANDUEL AT $4.5

For each platform we calculate a position specific points per dollar and our projection says he is a better value on DraftKings than on FanDuel. He is projected for 7.1 FD points and is worth -$291 less than $4.5K on FD. On DK he is projected for 8.2 points and is worth +$555 more than $3K. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.

FANDUEL WEEK (RB) 2 RANKPROJECTIONSALARY
#47 Justin Jackson7.3 FD Points$5900
#48 Adrian Peterson7.2 FD Points$5600
#49 Darwin Thompson7.1 FD Points$4500
#50 C.J. Anderson7.1 FD Points$5300
#51 Justice Hill7 FD Points$5000
DRAFTKINGS WEEK (RB) 2 RANKPROJECTIONSALARY
#32 Peyton Barber9 DK Points$4000
#33 Alexander Mattison8.3 DK Points$3800
#34 Darwin Thompson8.2 DK Points$3000
#35 Justin Jackson8.1 DK Points$4000
#36 Adrian Peterson8.1 DK Points$3700

FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS

The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks.

DARWIN THOMPSONFPPPRRUSHYDTDRECRECYD
2019 Projection11013892.04364.327.8315
-- Per Game (16 Proj)6.98.65.827.20.271.7419.7
Week 1 @JAC6.37.96.0280.221.6017.6
Week 2 @OAK8.210.06.2310.341.8022