NFL Outlook: The Buffalo Bills are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Bengals and Behind the Colts in the AFC

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Bills are not contenders to win the Super Bowl at 100/1, 1%. They are one of 3 teams with these odds (#25 in the league). While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the Super Bowl is under 0.1 percent. In simulations, they win the AFC 0.2% of the time and are not a good value at 50/1, 2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 7 games. The Bills are averaging 6.6 wins per sim. At +400 the Bills are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 10.5% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/1, 11.1%. They win the division in 3.7% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 6-10 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 5-11. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). Based on computer simulations they only have a 38% chance to beat the Jets in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 NYJ38%1-11-12-0
9/15 NYG41%0-00-00-0
9/22 CIN58%0-00-00-0
9/29 NE32%0-21-10-2
10/6 TEN33%1-01-00-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games16.8 (#30)2.9% (#30)5.2 (#28)193 (#31)6.2 (#31)124 (#9)4.2 (#21)2.0 (#30)
On the Road14.8 (#30)2.4% (#31)5.2 (#29)182 (#29)5.9 (#30)123 (#9)4.5 (#13)2.4 (#32)
At Home18.9 (#28)3.4% (#25)5.3 (#30)203 (#30)6.5 (#28)125 (#9)4.0 (#28)1.6 (#24)
Last 4 Games22.8 (#14)4.4% (#11)5.6 (#18)213 (#20)6.5 (#23)133 (#9)4.5 (#14)1.8 (#25)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games23.4 (#18)4.2% (#17)5.3 (#1)193 (#1)6.3 (#1)115 (#16)4.2 (#10)1.7 (#8)
Road Games23.4 (#17)4.5% (#23)5.3 (#2)198 (#1)6.0 (#1)123 (#20)4.4 (#19)1.9 (#2)
Home Games23.4 (#22)3.8% (#16)5.3 (#1)187 (#1)6.6 (#5)107 (#12)3.9 (#7)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games20.2 (#13)3.8% (#15)5.1 (#4)164 (#2)5.9 (#3)139 (#25)4.4 (#20)2.2 (#1)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Josh Allen who is projected to be the #19 QB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Josh Allen5519Jimmy GaroppoloKirk Cousins
Devin Singletary6732Tarik CohenMiles Sanders
Zay Jones2353Courtland SuttonJames Washington
John Brown5755James WashingtonMarquise Brown
Frank Gore2055C.J. AndersonDontrell Hilliard
Tremaine Edmunds808Cory LittletonRoquan Smith
Jordan Poyer5613Harrison SmithJaire Alexander
T.J. Yeldon1163Ty MontgomeryAlfred Blue
Robert Foster566Paul RichardsonDanny Amendola
Tyler Kroft068Adam ShaheenJordan Akins
Buffalo Defense735Denver DefenseHouston Defense