NFL Outlook: Bet on the New England Patriots to Win the Super Bowl at 6/1, 14.3%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Chiefs

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Patriots are one of 2 teams tied for having the best chance to win the Super Bowl based on the odds (6/1, 14.3%). They win the Super Bowl in 16.5% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the AFC at 11/4, 26.7%. Their sim chance is 29.2%. The Patriots are averaging 11.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 11 wins. At -800 the Patriots are a good value to make the playoffs with a 92.2% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 2/9, 81.8%. They win the division in 86.5% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 11-5 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 72%. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). More of their games came in under (11) than went over (5). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Pittsburgh Steelers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 PIT67%0-10-10-1
9/15 MIA79%1-11-11-1
9/22 NYJ77%2-02-00-2
9/29 BUF67%2-01-10-2
10/6 WAS71%0-00-00-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a lower offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games27.2 (#4)4.5% (#12)6.1 (#6)275 (#9)7.7 (#10)127 (#5)4.3 (#20)1.1 (#6)
On the Road21.6 (#19)3.2% (#22)5.9 (#16)269 (#11)7.3 (#14)98 (#25)3.9 (#29)0.8 (#1)
At Home32.9 (#3)5.6% (#6)6.3 (#2)281 (#10)8.1 (#9)157 (#4)4.5 (#12)1.5 (#21)
Last 4 Games26.2 (#7)4.6% (#9)6.0 (#6)253 (#14)7.4 (#9)144 (#5)4.6 (#12)1.0 (#7)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.3 (#7)3.7% (#10)6.2 (#18)261 (#21)6.9 (#5)113 (#11)4.9 (#29)1.8 (#5)
Road Games24.0 (#19)4.5% (#21)6.7 (#28)289 (#29)7.8 (#22)127 (#23)5.1 (#30)1.2 (#18)
Home Games16.6 (#2)2.9% (#4)5.6 (#9)234 (#8)6.0 (#1)99 (#8)4.7 (#21)2.2 (#2)
Last 4 Games16.5 (#5)3.8% (#16)6.7 (#17)221 (#13)7.2 (#22)131 (#21)6.0 (#31)2.0 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Tom Brady who is projected to be the #13 QB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Tom Brady9813Drew BreesLamar Jackson
Julian Edelman10015Brandin CooksStefon Diggs
Sony Michel9920David MontgomeryMarlon Mack
Josh Gordon9727Christian KirkRobby Anderson
James White9834Devin SingletaryMiles Sanders
Benjamin Watson435Charles ClayMike Gesicki
Matt LaCosse244Gerald EverettIrv Smith Jr.
Damien Harris4151Ronald JonesJustice Hill
Stephen Gostkowski1004Robbie GouldKa'imi Fairbairn
Brandon Bolden173Corey ClementWayne Gallman
New England Defense7513LA Rams DefenseCleveland Defense