Aaron Jones Was Good, but Not Elite, in Fantasy

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Aaron Jones had a good fantasy season and was a 'second tier' fantasy star. He was the #80 ranked fantasy player this season and the #23 RB. He would be in the elite class of RBs if he had played more games. Based on average fantasy points he was the #15 RB. He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 5 games he averaged 15.4 fantasy points which was higher than his start (8.3 FP) and his ending average (11 FP). He is young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.65 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Jones when he 'goes off' is 29 fantasy points (his average is 12.1FPs).

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STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON

As a young player he improved as you would like. His average Fantasy points increased by 70% this season.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points14671
FP Average12.17.1
Regular Season GP1210

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

Aaron Jones played in 12 games in 2018. He was the #23 ranked fantasy RB based on total fantasy points. He averaged 12.1 FP per game (#15 ranked based on average). With a better rank based on average than total production, he could be worth more than some think, assuming he plays a full season. He is trending up based on improved per game fantasy ranking from 2017 to 2018. He is relatively weaker than stronger in more categories. The strengths are bolded below.

2017-2018FPRUSHRUSHYDRUSHTDRECRECYDRECTDFUML
Stats (22 Games)2162141177123522811
RB Rank#31#41#32#13#57#70#48#31
Average Stats9.89.753.50.551.610.40.050
RB Rank (Averages)#24#50#30#11#68#86#70#47
2018 SeasonFPRUSHRUSHYDRUSHTDRECRECYDRECTDFUML
Stats (12 Games)14613372982620611
RB Rank#23#34#23#11#36#38#26#33
Average Stats12.111.160.80.672.217.20.080.1
RB Rank (Averages)#15#34#20#10#37#39#42#52
2017 SeasonFPRUSHRUSHYDRUSHTDRECRECYDRECTDFUML
Stats (10 Games)7181448492200
RB Rank#50#53#41#25#76#119#166#1
Average Stats7.18.144.80.40.92.200
RB Rank (Averages)#42#53#32#20#88#131#1#1

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WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

Out of 12 fantasy weeks, he was +20% above his weekly average of 12.1 FPs in 5 of them. He had 5 bad weeks where he was 20% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL12.1 FP per Week55
Week 34.7 (1 games)-7.4
Week 414.2 (1 games)
Week 55.9 (1 games)-6.2
Week 64.1 (1 games)-8
Week 814.6 (1 games)+2.5
Week 96.6 (1 games)-5.5
Week 1029.2 (1 games)+17.1
Week 1122.3 (1 games)+10.2
Week 1215.3 (1 games)+3.2
Week 1311.2 (1 games)
Week 1416.6 (1 games)+4.5
Week 150.8 (1 games)-11.3

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 13.2 FD points and 14.5 DK points per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 4.1 and on FanDuel it was 4.1 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 27.3 and on FanDuel it was 24.8 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All13.2 ($6.4K)4 G, 5 B14.5 ($5.2K)4 G, 5 B
12/16 @CHI0.8 ($7.5K)-12.40.8 ($6.6K)-13.7
12/9 ATL18.1 ($7.5K)+4.919.6 ($7.2K)+5.1
12/2 ARI13.2 ($7.6K)--15.2 ($6.7K)--
11/25 @MIN16.8 ($6.5K)+3.618.3 ($6K)+3.8
11/15 @SEA24.8 ($6.5K)+11.627.3 ($5.7K)+12.8
11/11 MIA30.7 ($6.5K)+17.535.2 ($5K)+20.7
11/4 @NE7.6 ($5.8K)-5.68.6 ($4.1K)-5.9
10/28 @LAR15.6 ($5.8K)--16.6 ($4.1K)--
10/15 SF4.1 ($6.1K)-9.14.1 ($4.6K)-10.4
10/7 @DET6.9 ($6.1K)-6.37.9 ($4.3K)-6.6
9/30 BUF14.7 ($5.5K)--15.2 ($4.1K)--
9/23 @WAS5.2 ($5.9K)-85.7 ($4.3K)-8.8